Prediction: Dallas Stars VS Calgary Flames 2025-11-22
Dallas Stars vs. Calgary Flames: A Battle of Injuries and Implied Probabilities
The Dallas Stars (-141) and Calgary Flames (+119) collide on November 23, 2025, in a matchup that’s less “hockey showdown” and more “two teams playing with one hand tied behind their backs (and that hand is injured).” Let’s break down why the Stars are the smart bet—unless you’re a masochist who enjoys watching goalies weep into their gloves.
Parse the Odds: Implied Probabilities and Track Records
First, the math. The Stars’ -141 odds imply a 58.5% chance to win (141 / (141+100)), while the Flames’ +119 suggests bookmakers think they have a 45.7% shot (100 / (119+100)). Add it up, and the “vigorish tax” totals 104.2%, meaning the true probabilities are slightly lower. Still, Dallas is clearly the favorite.
Historically, the Stars have won 62.5% of games when favored this season (10-6), including a 60% clip when the odds were -144 or shorter. The Flames, meanwhile, are a tragicomic 2-8 when underdogs with +120 or longer odds. Their “upsets”? Four. Their “embarrassing losses”? Fourteen. Math checks out.
The total goals line is 6.0, with the projection at 5.8 goals—just shy of the over/under threshold. Dallas has hit over 5.5 goals in 12 of 21 games, while Calgary’s done it in all 14 of their contests. Combined, they average 5.5 goals per game. But here’s the twist: both teams are missing key defensemen, which could make this a shootout. More on that later.
Digest the News: Injuries, Injuries, Injuries
Both teams are fielding lineups that’d make a medical student blush.
- Dallas is without defensemen Nils Lundkvist, Adam Erne, and Ilya Lyubushkin—three players who combined to block 123 shots this season. Without them, the Stars’ defense is like a sieve made of Jell-O.
- Calgary is missing Zayne Parekh, Martin Pospisil, and Samuel Honzek, who accounted for 28% of the team’s defensive ice time. Their penalty kill? Now it’s the hockey equivalent of a toddler trying to stop a tsunami.
The Flames’ woes are compounded by their home-ice advantage being negated by their porous defense. Meanwhile, Dallas’s star-studded offense (Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, etc.) should exploit Calgary’s defensive gaps like a hacker at a bank vault.
Humorous Spin: Puns, Puns, and More Puns
Let’s be real: This game is a tragedy waiting to happen for the Flames. Their defense is so bad, they’d let a puck roll through the zone like a toddler with a juice box—chaos ensues. The Stars, on the other hand, are like a well-oiled machine… if the machine was a Roomba that occasionally scored a hat trick on accident.
Dallas’s missing defensemen? They’re the hockey version of a missing Wi-Fi signal—everyone’s trying to compensate, but nothing connects. Calgary’s defense? It’s like a sieve that’s been told it’s “ç›â€ť (sieve) in Chinese and taken it as an insult.
And let’s not forget the total goals line. At 6.0, it’s the NHL’s way of saying, “We think this game will be as exciting as a car crash… but with more netminders throwing their pads at the puck in desperation.”
Prediction: Stars Shine, Flames Fizzle
Putting it all together: Dallas’s superior track record as a favorite (62.5% win rate), Calgary’s abysmal performance as underdogs (2-8), and the injury-riddled defenses pointing to a high-scoring game all tilt toward the Stars winning 4-3 and the total goals landing just under 6.0.
Why the under? While both teams are missing defensive depth, Dallas’s offense is too potent to consistently score 6+ goals, and Calgary’s goaltending (Jacob Markström, 2.68 GAA) is just bad enough to keep this from being a 7-5 blowout.
Final Verdict: Bet the Dallas Stars (-141) and the Under 6.0 goals. Unless you’re a Flames fan—then bet on your team to make a valiant effort to lose… and maybe bring a stress ball.
Stream the game on ESPN+ or Sport Mail.ru. And if you’re in Calgary, hope the Saddledome’s heating system works—it’s going to get cold in that locker room after this.
Created: Nov. 22, 2025, 5:42 p.m. GMT