Prediction: Dallas Wings VS Chicago Sky 2025-07-09
WNBA Showdown: Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky – A Tale of Two Teams (and a Lot of Injuries)
The Setup
The Dallas Wings (6-14) and Chicago Sky (5-13) clash in a third-season finale, with both teams nursing enough injuries to stock a medical supply store. Dallas is missing Arike Ogunbowale, DiJonai Carrington, Maddy Siegrist, and Tyasha Harris, while Chicago is without Kamila Cardoso (overseas) and the season-ending ACL tear of Courtney Vandersloot. It’s a game where the starters could be mistaken for a college scrimmage, but with WNBA salaries and DraftKings odds.
The Numbers Game
- Moneyline Odds: Chicago (-110) and Dallas (-110) are oddly even, but the spread tells a clearer story: Chicago is favored by 1-1.5 points across books.
- Implied Probabilities: At decimal odds of ~1.91, both teams have a ~51.3% implied chance to win.
- Underdog Win Rate for WNBA: 32% (assuming parity with NBA).
- Favorite Win Rate: 68% (100% - 32%).
Expected Value Calculations
- Chicago (Favorite): Split the difference between implied probability (51.3%) and favorite win rate (68%) → (51.3 + 68)/2 = 59.65%.
- Dallas (Underdog): Split the difference between implied probability (51.3%) and underdog win rate (32%) → (51.3 + 32)/2 = 41.65%.
Key Factors
1. Injuries: Dallas is missing its top two scorers (Ogunbowale, Carrington), while Chicago’s Angel Reese (30.5 P/Reb favorite) and Elizabeth Williams provide defensive grit.
2. Home Court: Chicago’s 3-1 record at Wintrust Arena this season vs. Dallas’ 1-3 road mark.
3. Recent History: Chicago has won 2 of 3 meetings this season, including a 78-72 home win in May.
4. Rookie vs. Veteran: Dallas’ Paige Bueckers (18.5 P/10.5 Reb favorite) is a bright spot, but Chicago’s Angel Reese is a 30.5 P/Reb machine.
The Verdict
While the moneyline is a coin flip, the Chicago Sky are the smarter play. Their 59.65% expected win probability edges out Dallas’ 41.65%, bolstered by home-court advantage and a healthier roster. Plus, Dallas’ injury-riddled lineup looks like a "Where’s Waldo?" game for opposing defenses.
Best Bet: Chicago Sky Moneyline (-110)
Alternate Pick: Over 166.5 Points (+105) – With both teams lacking depth, expect a high-scoring affair as starters take advantage of thin rotations.
Final Thought
This game is less of a WNBA showdown and more of a "Who Can Hide Their Embarrassing Injuries Better?" contest. But if you’re betting, side with the Sky. Dallas’ future is bright with Bueckers, but Chicago’s present is just… less broken.
“The Wings may fly, but the Sky is falling… on the other team.” 🏀🔥
Created: July 9, 2025, 9:42 p.m. GMT