Prediction: Dayana Yastremska VS Anastasia Zakharova 2025-07-02
Wimbledon Wits: Yastremska vs. Zakharova – A Tale of Overrated Favorites and Undervalued Grinders
The Matchup:
Dayana Yastremska (WTA #42) vs. Anastasia Zakharova (WTA #95)
When: July 2, 2025 | Where: Wimbledon | Time: 9:00 AM UTC (20:30 Kyiv)
Odds (FanDuel): Yastremska -1000, Zakharova +800
The Setup:
Yastremska, the Ukrainian veteran, just handed Coco Gauff (WTA #2) her first loss in four meetings, a 7-6, 6-1 stunner. Zakharova, the qualifier, stunned Victoria Azarenka in three sets, proving she’s no fluke. But here’s the twist: Yastremska is favored at 1.27 (FanDuel), implying a 78.7% chance to win. Zakharova’s 3.85 odds suggest a 25.9% chance—a 4.1% discount compared to the tennis underdog win rate of 30%. Translation? Bookmakers are sleepwalking here.
The Numbers Game:
- Yastremska’s Case:
- 4th Wimbledon appearance, best result: QF (2019).
- Just beat a top-2 player (Gauff) in 80 minutes.
- 4/6 break points converted vs. Gauff; efficient, but not dominant.
- Zakharova’s Case:
- Beat Azarenka (WTA #87) in 1h56m—gritty, three-set battle.
- Qualifier-turned-Grand Slam-contender; peak performance when it matters.
- 30% of tennis underdogs win. Zakharova’s 25.9% implied odds are undervalued.
The EV Breakdown:
- Yastremska’s Implied Probability: 78.7%
- Zakharova’s Implied Probability: 25.9%
- Tennis Underdog Win Rate: 30%
- EV for Zakharova: (30% * 3.85) - 1 = +15.5%
- EV for Yastremska: (70% * 1.27) - 1 = -11.1%
Key Injuries/Updates:
- Yastremska: No reported injuries. Her 1 ace and 3 double faults vs. Gauff hint at shaky serve, though.
- Zakharova: Fresh off a grueling 3-set win; energy levels could be a factor, but her mental grit is undeniable.
The Verdict:
Yastremska’s resume is flashier, but her recent performance against Gauff was more “avoiding disaster” than “dominating.” Zakharova, meanwhile, has the underdog’s edge and a 4.1% pricing edge. The math? It’s screaming Zakharova +800.
Best Bet:
Anastasia Zakharova (+800, FanDuel)
Why? Because Yastremska’s 78.7% implied odds are a mirage. Tennis history says 30% of underdogs win. Bookmakers are giving Zakharova a 25.9% shot—buy the discount.
Final Prediction: Zakharova in 3 sets. The upset of Wimbledon’s second round? Count on it. 🎾💥
Created: July 1, 2025, 10:29 p.m. GMT