Prediction: FC Dallas VS Los Angeles FC 2025-07-12
LAFC vs. FC Dallas: A Data-Driven Jab at the Odds
By The Sportswriter with a Calculator and a Punchline
Key Statistics: The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly)
- LAFC (8-5-5, 29 pts):
- Just ended a four-game winless streak with a 3-0 thrashing of Colorado, led by Denis Bouanga (9 MLS goals).
- 28 matches played this season (including CONCACAF games), but still top-four in the West.
- Steve Cherundolo’s crew thrives on momentum: “Congested schedules are our favorite kind of chaos.”
- FC Dallas (5-9-6, 21 pts):
- On a three-game losing streak, allowing 2+ goals in each.
- Coach Eric Quill’s cryptic pregame: “We’ll figure out personnel/formation changes.” Translation: Pray for creativity.
- Bouanga’s 9 goals vs. Dallas’ leaky defense? Not a fan of math.
Injuries/Updates: Who’s Cooking?
- No major injury reports for either side.
- FC Dallas’ defense: The real injury here. They’ve conceded 1.8 goals per game this season—not a typo.
Odds Breakdown: The Math of Madness
Favorite: LAFC (-1.25, 1.41-1.43 odds)
- Implied probability: ~70% (1 / 1.43).
- Adjusted probability: Split between implied (70%) and favorite win rate (100% - 41% underdog rate = 59%).
- (70% + 59%) / 2 = 64.5%.
- EV: 64.5% chance vs. 70% implied → Negative EV. Don’t bet LAFC unless you enjoy losing money.
Underdog: FC Dallas (+6.5-+7.5, 6.5-7.5 odds)
- Implied probability: ~13.3% (1 / 6.5).
- Adjusted probability: Split between implied (13.3%) and soccer underdog rate (41%).
- (13.3% + 41%) / 2 = 27.15%.
- EV: 27.15% chance vs. 13.3% implied → Positive EV. Dallas is a diamond in the rough.
Draw (4.7-5.15 odds):
- Implied: ~19-21%. Adjusted? Let’s just say it’s not worth your time.
Why Bet FC Dallas?
1. The Underdog’s Edge: Soccer underdogs win 41% of the time. FC Dallas’ 27.15% adjusted probability > 13.3% implied.
2. LAFC’s Overrated Momentum: A 3-0 win over Colorado? Impressive. But Dallas’ defense is a sieve. Can Bouanga not score? Unlikely.
3. Quill’s “Personnel Changes”: Translation: We’re throwing darts. Sometimes darts hit the bullseye.
Final Verdict: Bet on the Joke
Pick: FC Dallas (+6.5-+7.5)
- EV: +13.85% (27.15% chance vs. 13.3% price).
- Why? Because math says so, and FC Dallas’ defense is a walking meme.
LAFC’s fans, cry in the comments. 🎯⚽
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Disclaimer: This analysis assumes FC Dallas’ defense doesn’t invent a new sport called “How to Let In Goals.”
Created: July 12, 2025, 12:54 p.m. GMT