Prediction: Girona VS Alavés 2026-02-23
La Liga Showdown: Alavés vs. Girona – A Clash of Leaky Boats and Goal-Scoring Magicians
Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a match that’s equal parts “will they, won’t they?” and “here’s a free goal for everyone!” Deportivo Alavés, the team that’s turned their home stadium into a sieve, host Girona, the Barcelona-bashing, xG-mad goal machine, in a battle of La Liga’s also-rans. Let’s parse the odds, digest the drama, and predict who’ll walk away with the bragging rights (and maybe a few points).
Parsing the Odds: A Math Class You’ll Actually Enjoy
The bookmakers are playing the “home team slight favorite” card, giving Alavés +2.4 odds (implied probability: ~41%) and Girona +3.3 odds (~30%). The draw? A tidy 2.95-3.0 (~33-34%). Translating this into plain English: Alavés is the cautious pick, Girona is the “long shot with swagger,” and the market thinks a draw is as likely as a snowstorm in the Sahara.
But here’s the kicker: The both teams to score line is hovering around 1.96 odds (~51% implied probability), which feels way too low given the context. Why? Because Alavés has only failed to score in two matches this season (one of them was a mercy mission against Atlético Madrid), and Girona’s attack is so hot right now, their xG numbers make a lava lamp look cool.
Digesting the News: Injuries, xG, and the Ghost of Oviedo
Let’s start with Girona, the team that shocked Barcelona and now wants to shock you with their goal-scoring prowess. Their recent xG totals? A ludicrous 3.0 against Barça, 2.5 against Sevilla. Even their “dry spell” against Oviedo is excusable—Oviedo’s defense is about as porous as a colander in a hurricane. Key men like Thomas Lemar and Bryan Gil are firing on all cylinders, and their 2-1 win over the Blaugrana proves they can handle pressure.
Alavés, meanwhile, is the soccer version of a leaky boat. They’ve conceded in six straight matches, including that 1-1 draw with Sevilla where their defense probably packed up and went home early. Their only silver lining? A home crowd that’s as passionate as a group of fans who’ve never seen their team win. But let’s be real: If Girona’s attack were a toaster, Alavés’ defense would be the bread that’s already butter-side down.
The Humor Section: Because Football Needs Laughs
- Alavés’ defense: If this backline were a cheese, it’d be Swiss. If it were a joke, it’d be the one about the door that’s always open.
- Girona’s attack: They don’t just score goals—they perform goal-related magic tricks. Last week, they pulled a “poof, there’s a hat trick!” out of thin air.
- The xG numbers: Girona’s expected goals are like a broken thermometer in a sauna—sky-high and impossible to ignore.
- The draw odds: Betting on a 3-3 tie here feels like betting on a chicken to lay an egg in 30 seconds. It’s possible, but why?
Prediction: Girona, Because Alavés’ Net Has a Leak
While Alavés’ home advantage is real, their defense is the soccer equivalent of a screen door on a submarine. Girona’s attack, meanwhile, is a fully loaded torpedo. The xG numbers, recent form (hello, Barcelona), and Mossakovsky’s both teams to score endorsement all point to a high-scoring affair. But if we’re picking a winner? Girona’s got the edge.
Final Score Prediction: Girona 2-1 Alavés.
Why? Because Alavés will score one goal (probably a last-minute own goal, per tradition) and Girona will respond with a clinic. The spread line (-0.25 for Alavés) is a cruel joke, but Girona’s +0.25 cover is as certain as taxes and bad memes.
Bold Play: Both teams to score (1.96 odds).
Conservative Play: Over 2.5 goals.
In the end, this match is less of a football game and more of a “how many goals can Girona score before Alavés concedes to the inevitable?” spectacle. Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild ride.
Created: Feb. 23, 2026, 2:49 p.m. GMT