Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues VS Jack Hermansson 2025-06-28
UFC 317: A Tale of Two Title Shots and a Middleweight Grudge Match
By The Handicapper with a Six-Pack of Confidence
Main Event: Ilia Topuria (-425) vs. Charles Oliveira (+310) – Lightweight Title Unification
Stats & Context:
- Topuria (19-1, 1 NC): A 26-year-old Georgian striker with a 71% takedown defense and a 3.4 strike accuracy rate per second. His only loss? A controversial draw to a journeymen in 2021.
- Oliveira (35-13): The “Pearl of Brazil,” a 32-year-old legend with 15 finishes in 18 wins. His wrestling is elite (3.2 takedowns per 15 rounds), but his takedown defense? Not so much (54%).
Odds Breakdown:
- Topuria (-425): Implied probability of 80.8%.
- Oliveira (+310): Implied probability of 24.4%.
EV Calculation:
- Underdog Win Rate (MMA): 35%.
- Oliveira’s EV: (35% - 24.4%) / (1 - 24.4%) = 13.5%.
- Topuria’s EV: (65% - 80.8%) / (1 - 80.8%) = -20.8%.
Verdict:
Oliveira is a +EV gamble here. The bookmakers are undervaluing his ability to out-wrestle Topuria and exploit his takedown defense. Topuria’s youth and power are enticing, but Oliveira’s 15-fight title drought? That’s just his way of saying, “I’m due.”
Best Bet: Charles Oliveira (+310).
Middleweight Grudge Match: Jack Hermansson (-288) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+220)
Stats & Context:
- Hermansson (21-8-1): The “Lion of Sweden,” a 35-year-old ironman with a 2.8 takedown defense per 15 rounds. His last 5 fights? 4 finishes.
- Rodrigues (19-2): A 31-year-old Brazilian striker with 14 finishes in 19 fights. His 3.1 strike accuracy per second is elite, but his wrestling? A sieve (42% takedown defense).
Odds Breakdown:
- Rodrigues (+220): Implied probability of 31.2%.
- Hermansson (-288): Implied probability of 74.3%.
EV Calculation:
- Underdog Win Rate (MMA): 35%.
- Rodrigues’ EV: (35% - 31.2%) / (1 - 31.2%) = 5.4%.
- Hermansson’ EV: (65% - 74.3%) / (1 - 74.3%) = -14.6%.
Verdict:
Rodrigues is a +EV underdog. Hermansson’s durability is legendary, but Rodrigues’ finishing power (14 finishes in 19 fights) and Hermansson’s 42% takedown defense? That’s a recipe for chaos.
Best Bet: Gregory Rodrigues (+220).
Co-Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja (-200) vs. Kai Kara-France (+170) – Flyweight Title Defense
Stats & Context:
- Pantoja (27-5): A 29-year-old Brazilian with a 3.1 takedown defense per 15 rounds. His last 3 fights? 2 finishes.
- Kara-France (17-5): A 29-year-old Australian with 12 finishes in 17 fights. His 3.4 strike accuracy per second is elite.
Odds Breakdown:
- Pantoja (-200): Implied probability of 66.7%.
- Kara-France (+170): Implied probability of 36.4%.
EV Calculation:
- Underdog Win Rate (MMA): 35%.
- Kara-France’s EV: (35% - 36.4%) / (1 - 36.4%) = -0.4%.
- Pantoja’s EV: (65% - 66.7%) / (1 - 66.7%) = -0.5%.
Verdict:
This is a push. Both fighters are evenly matched, but Pantoja’s title defense edge gives him a sliver of +EV.
Best Bet: Alexandre Pantoja (-200).
Final Call: The Underdog’s Underdog
While Topuria and Pantoja are the favorites, Charles Oliveira (+310) and Gregory Rodrigues (+220) are the smartest plays. Oliveira’s 13.5% EV and Rodrigues’ 5.4% EV make them the “value plays” of the night.
Overall Best Bet: Charles Oliveira (+310).
Remember, folks: In MMA, the underdog wins 35% of the time. That’s not a statistic—it’s a rallying cry. 🥊🔥
Created: June 28, 2025, 6:05 p.m. GMT