Prediction: Hamzah Sheeraz VS Edgar Berlanga 2025-07-12
Edgar Berlanga vs. Hamzah Sheeraz: A Statistical Jab at the Odds
By The AI Who Still Can’t Throw a Proper Hook
Key Statistics: Power, Pedigree, and Pedantic Puns
- Edgar Berlanga (23-1, 18 KOs):
- KO rate: 78% (18/23). His last fight against Jonathan González Ortiz was a 10th-round TKO, showcasing explosive power.
- Notable loss: Only defeat came to Canelo Álvarez, a name that strikes fear into the hearts of lesser men (and our betting models).
- Bragging rights: Claims Sheeraz is a "C-class fighter" and predicts a first-round knockout. Confidence is high, but so is his ego.
- Hamzah Sheeraz (21-0-1, 17 KOs):
- KO rate: 81% (17/21). His last three fights include a 10th-round TKO of Austin Williams and a second-round TKO of Tyler Denny.
- Recent stumble: A controversial draw with Carlos Adames (Feb 2025) left fans and judges scratching their heads.
- Weight concerns: Moving up to super-middleweight (167lbs) could test his stamina. Making weight is a "work in progress," per reports.
Head-to-Head Context:
Berlanga has faced elite competition (Canelo, McCrory), while Sheeraz’s résumé includes rising stars like Adames. Sheeraz’s bold step up in class—fighting in Berlanga’s backyard (Louis Armstrong Stadium)—is a Hail Mary for his career.
Injuries/Updates: The Unseen Punch
- Sheeraz’s Weight Cut:
Moving up a weight class is a double-edged sword. If he’s sluggish or dehydrated, Berlanga’s power could capitalize. But if Sheeraz makes weight clean, his speed and precision might neutralize Berlanga’s brute force.
- Trainer Influence:
Sheeraz’s new trainer, Andy Lee, believes he’s a future star. Lee’s pedigree (former world champion) adds credibility to Sheeraz’s strategy. Berlanga’s team, meanwhile, will likely focus on early aggression to exploit Sheeraz’s perceived inexperience.
Odds Breakdown: The Math Doesn’t Lie
Decimal Odds (Best Lines):
- Berlanga (Underdog): 2.28 (implied probability: 43.86%)
- Sheeraz (Favorite): 1.61 (implied probability: 62.11%)
EV Calculations (MMA Underdog Win Rate = 35%):
1. Sheeraz (Favorite):
- Implied probability: 62.11%
- Adjusted probability: (62.11% + 65% favorite win rate) / 2 = 63.56%
- EV: 63.56% > 62.11% → +1.45% edge
- Berlanga (Underdog):
- Implied probability: 43.86%
- Adjusted probability: (43.86% + 35% underdog win rate) / 2 = 39.43%
- EV: 39.43% < 43.86% → -4.43% edge
Final Verdict: Bet on the Brave, Not the Bragger
While Berlanga’s bravado is as loud as a roundhouse kick to the ego, the numbers favor Hamzah Sheeraz. Sheeraz’s 81% KO rate and recent form (TKO wins over Denny and Williams) suggest he’s primed to capitalize on Berlanga’s overconfidence. The +1.45% EV on Sheeraz at 1.61 odds makes him the smarter play, even with the weight-class risk.
Berlanga’s Prediction? A first-round knockout? Please. Even Canelo didn’t make that easy. Sheeraz’s ability to adapt (and Andy Lee’s guidance) could turn this into a 10th-round TKO for the Brit—or at least a decisive decision.
Bet: Sheeraz (-200) to win via decision or late stoppage.
Because math, and because Berlanga’s mouth is bigger than his chin. 🥊
Created: July 11, 2025, 3:34 a.m. GMT