Prediction: Hawthorn Hawks VS St Kilda Saints 2025-07-05

AFL Showdown: Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints – A Tale of Two Trajectories
By The Handicapper with a Pipe and a Grudge

The Setup
The Hawthorn Hawks (3-1 ATS in their last 4) are riding a three-game winning streak, while the St Kilda Saints (2-11 in their last 13) are a sinking ship in a stormy sea of mediocrity. The stakes? Hawthorn’s quest to prove they’re not just a mid-season flash in the pan, and St Kilda’s desperate attempt to avoid becoming the first team since 1982 to lose 15+ games in a season.

Key Injuries & Player Updates
- Hawthorn’s Josh Weddle is out indefinitely with a back injury, a major blow to their midfield. The kid’s got potential, but his absence is a “we’ll see in a month” mystery.
- Captain James Sicily is “likely” to return, but only if he wakes up feeling like a human and not a sack of potatoes.
- James Worpel (back from a cork injury) and Will Day (targeting Round 20) add depth, but their impact here? Minimal.
- St Kilda’s woes are… well, they’re just there. No notable absences, but their offense is as reliable as a toaster in a thunderstorm.

Odds & Implied Probabilities
- Hawthorn: Decimal odds of 1.35 → Implied probability of 74.07%.
- St Kilda: Decimal odds of 3.15 → Implied probability of 31.75%.

Underdog Win Rate Proxy
Since AFL isn’t explicitly listed in the provided underdog win rates, we’ll use soccer’s 41% as a proxy (team sports, similar scoring dynamics).

Expected Value (EV) Calculation
- Hawthorn’s EV: Implied probability (74.07%) vs. favorite win rate (59% → 100% - 41%).
- Difference: 74.07% - 59% = 15.07% edge.
- St Kilda’s EV: Implied probability (31.75%) vs. underdog win rate (41%).
- Difference: 41% - 31.75% = 9.25% edge.

The Verdict
Hawthorn’s EV edge (15.07%) dwarfs St Kilda’s (9.25%), making the Hawks the smarter play. Even with Weddle out and Sicily’s iffy status, Hawthorn’s recent form (3 straight wins) and St Kilda’s abysmal 2-11 stretch tilt the scales.

Final Pick: Hawthorn -18.5 (-110)
Why? The spread reflects Hawthorn’s dominance, and their EV edge is too big to ignore. St Kilda’s only hope is a miracle (or a last-minute injury to Sicily). Stick with the Hawks—they’re the real deal.

Bonus Sarcasm
If St Kilda wins, the universe will pause for a moment of silence. Hawthorn, meanwhile, will sip champagne and wonder why anyone ever doubted them.

Stream the chaos on Kayo Sports (free trial alert!) and bet wisely—or at least bet with math. 🏆

Created: July 5, 2025, 7:45 a.m. GMT

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