Prediction: Houston Astros VS Colorado Rockies 2025-07-01
Astros vs. Rockies: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Park That Hates the Rockies)
July 1, 2025, Coors Field — Where Dreams Go to Die (for Rockies Fans)
The Setup
The Houston Astros (50-34) roll into Denver to face the Colorado Rockies (19-65), a team so bad they’ve turned Coors Field into a metaphor for futility. The Astros, MLB’s 7th-best pitching staff (3.48 ERA), face a Rockies squad with a 5.50 ERA (dead last) and a 22.2% win rate as underdogs. This isn’t a game—it’s a mercy mission for Houston.
Key Stats & Context
- Astros: 61% win rate when favored, 7-3 in games with -171 odds or shorter.
- Rockies: 19-65 overall, 5.50 ERA (MLB’s worst), and a .222 team batting average.
- Pitching Matchup: Colton Gordon (3.98 ERA, 38 Ks in 40.2 IP) vs. Chase Dollander (6.06 ERA). Gordon’s got a prayer; Dollander’s got a problem.
- Offense: Houston’s .254 BA and 91 HRs vs. Colorado’s .222 BA and 56 HRs. Jeremy Pena (.322) vs. Hunter Goodman (.287)—it’s like asking a Ferrari to race a toaster.
Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline: Astros -171 (60% implied), Rockies +236 (42.3% implied).
- Spread: Astros -1.5 (-110), Rockies +1.5 (-110).
- Total: Over 11 (-110), Under 11 (-110).
Calculating Expected Value (EV)
1. Astros Moneyline:
- Implied probability: 60%.
- Actual probability: 61% (from their 61% win rate as favorites).
- EV: (0.61 * 100/1.67) - 100 ≈ +12.86%.
2. Rockies Moneyline:
- Implied probability: 42.3%.
- Actual probability: 22.2% (their underdog win rate).
- EV: (0.222 * 236) - 100 ≈ -25.41%.
3. Spread:
- Astros -1.5: Implied probability ≈ 63%.
- Actual probability: ~65% (Astros’ 61% win rate + Rockies’ weak offense).
- EV: (0.65 * 100/1.94) - 100 ≈ +8.25%.
4. Total:
- Over 11: Implied probability ≈ 54.6%.
- Under 11: Implied probability ≈ 50%.
- Actual probability: Rockies’ 5.50 ERA and Astros’ 3.48 ERA suggest a low-scoring game. Under 11 has +5.08% EV.
The Verdict
- Best Bet: Houston Astros Moneyline (-171).
- Why? The Astros’ 12.86% EV is the highest among all options. Their pitching, offense, and favorable matchup against a Rockies team that’s lost 65 games make this a no-brainer.
- Secondary Play: Under 11 Runs (-110).
- Why? Rockies’ offense is a sieve, and Astros’ pitching is elite. Even in a hitter-friendly park, the Under’s EV is positive.
Final Thoughts
The Rockies are baseball’s version of a participation trophy—presented for effort, not skill. The Astros, meanwhile, are here to remind everyone why they’re a perennial contender. Bet the Astros and enjoy the Rockies’ inevitable meltdown.
“The only thing Colorado’s good at is altitude and disappointment.” — Anonymous Astros Fan
Created: July 1, 2025, 2:52 p.m. GMT