Prediction: Houston Astros VS Colorado Rockies 2025-07-02
Astros vs. Rockies: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Very One-Sided Moneyline)
July 1, 2025, Coors Field — Where Dreams Go to Die (for the Rockies, Anyway)
The Setup
The Houston Astros (50-34) roll into Denver to face the Colorado Rockies (19-65), a team so bad they’ve turned Coors Field into a metaphor for despair. The Astros are -171 favorites, while the Rockies are +3.2 underdogs. Let’s break this down with the precision of a MLB umpire and the humor of a Rockies fan after a 12-run loss.
The Numbers Game
- Astros: 3.48 ERA (7th in MLB), 91 HRs, and a .254 team batting average. Jeremy Pena (.322 BA) and Jose Altuve (81 hits) are the offensive engines. Starter Colton Gordon (3.98 ERA, 38 Ks in 40⅔ IP) is the ace in the hole.
- Rockies: 5.50 ERA (30th in MLB), 14 HRs (Hunter Goodman leads), and a .287 average for Goodman. Starter Chase Dollander (6.06 ERA) is about as reliable as a weather forecast in the Rockies’ spring.
The Implied Probabilities
- Astros: -171 → Implied probability = 150/(150+100) = 60%
- Rockies: +3.2 → Implied probability = 1/3.2 = 31.25%
The Underdog Win Rate
MLB underdogs win 41% of the time. The Rockies? They’ve only won 22.2% of their games as underdogs this season. But hey, history says the little guy wins 41% of the time—so let’s split the difference between the Rockies’ 31.25% implied and the 41% MLB average. That gives us a 36.125% expected win rate for the Rockies.
The EV Check
- Rockies: 36.125% expected win rate vs. 31.25% implied → +5% edge
- Astros: 60% implied vs. their 61% actual win rate as favorites → -1% edge
Key Injuries/Updates
- The Rockies’ starting pitcher, Chase Dollander (6.06 ERA), is as trustworthy as a broken umbrella in a monsoon.
- The Astros’ Colton Gordon (3.98 ERA) is the only reason Houston’s starters aren’t in the Hall of Shame.
- Both teams are healthy, but the Rockies’ lineup is so bad they’d probably lose to a team of robots.
The Verdict
The Astros are the most likely winner, but the Rockies offer a positive expected value bet. While Houston’s 61% win rate as favorites is slightly overpriced (-1% edge), the Rockies’ 36.125% expected win rate vs. their 31.25% implied gives them a +5% edge.
Best Bet: Rockies +3.2
Why? Because even though they’re the 19-65 team with a 6.06 ERA starter, the market is giving them a better shot than history suggests they deserve. It’s the ultimate underdog play—like betting on a snowball to beat a flamethrower.
Final Thought
The Rockies might lose, but they’ll do it with style. And if they somehow pull off the upset? You’ll thank us later. If not? At least you’ll have a good story to tell at the bar.
Play it at your own risk, but remember: in baseball, even the worst team can hit a home run… just not very often. 🏟️⚾
Created: July 1, 2025, 6:07 p.m. GMT