Prediction: Iga Swiatek VS Amanda Anisimova 2025-07-12
Wimbledon 2025 Final: Iga Świątek vs. Amanda Anisimova
July 12, 2025 | Grass | Implied Probabilities & EV Analysis
1. Key Statistics & Context
- Iga Świątek (1st Seed):
- Form: Dominant in Wimbledon 2025, dropping just 1 set in 6 matches.
- Surface Adaptation: Historically struggled on grass, but her 2025 campaign suggests improved adaptability.
- Career Milestones: A win would secure her 6th Grand Slam title, complete the "Surface Slam" (winning all three surfaces), and reach 100 Major wins.
- Amanda Anisimova (13th Seed):
- Form: Reached the final after a three-set thriller over Aryna Sabalenka, her first Grand Slam final.
- Resilience: Overcame a 2023 mental health hiatus to return to form, with 4 WTA 1000 titles in 2025.
- Style: Aggressive baseline play vs. Świątek’s consistency.
- Head-to-Head: First-ever meeting.
2. Injuries/Updates
- No injuries reported for either player.
- Anisimova’s mental health journey (2023) adds narrative weight but no physical limitations.
- Świątek remains the world No. 1, with no signs of fatigue.
3. Odds Breakdown & EV Analysis
Average Decimal Odds (Across 10+ Bookmakers):
- Anisimova (Underdog): 2.90 → Implied Probability: 34.5%
- Świątek (Favorite): 1.43 → Implied Probability: 69.9%
Sport-Specific Win Rates (Tennis):
- Underdog Win Rate: 30%
- Favorite Win Rate: 70%
Adjusted Probabilities (Using Decision Framework):
- Anisimova:
- Split implied (34.5%) vs. underdog rate (30%) → Adjusted: 32.25%
- EV: Negative (32.25% < 34.5% implied).
- Świątek:
- Split implied (69.9%) vs. favorite rate (70%) → Adjusted: 69.95%
- EV: Slight positive (69.95% ≈ 69.9% implied; negligible edge).
4. Betting Strategy & Recommendation
- Anisimova: Despite her inspiring story, the market overprices her at 34.5% implied vs. a historical 30% underdog win rate. Negative EV.
- Świątek: Her adjusted probability (69.95%) aligns almost perfectly with the implied (69.9%), but her dominant form and grass-court progression tilt the EV slightly in her favor.
Final Verdict:
Back Iga Świątek at 1.43 (decimal) or -150 (American).
- Why? The model shows a marginal edge for Świątek, and her current form (1-set losses, Surface Slam pursuit) makes her the safer bet. Anisimova’s underdog story is compelling, but the math says Świątek is the pick.
EV Summary:
- Świątek: +0.05% EV (adjusted 69.95% vs. implied 69.9%).
- Anisimova: -2.25% EV (adjusted 32.25% vs. implied 34.5%).
TL;DR: Świątek’s dominance and grass-court growth outweigh Anisimova’s underdog magic. Bet the favorite. 🎾
Created: July 11, 2025, 12:21 p.m. GMT