Prediction: Jailton Almeida VS Alexander Volkov 2025-10-25
UFC 321 Preview: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Volkov – The Ultimate “Wrestle vs. Wall” Showdown
Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a heavyweight clash that’s like watching a sumo wrestler try to dance the Macarena—it’s going to be a bumpy ride. On October 25, 2025, in Abu Dhabi, Alexander Volkov (38-11) and Jailton Almeida (22-3) will collide in a battle of old-school striking vs. modern wrestling savagery. Let’s break down the numbers, news, and why this fight is basically a math problem with a six-pack of beer.
Parsing the Odds: A Numbers Game
The betting market isn’t just throwing darts here. Almeida is the overwhelming favorite, with decimal odds hovering around 1.51 (implied probability: ~66%), while Volkov sits at 2.65 (~38%). To put that in perspective, it’s like betting on your grandma to win a cake-decorating contest vs. a toddler with a fondant cannon—no judgment.
Volkov’s strengths? He’s a technical striker with a 4.97 significant strikes per minute and 72% takedown defense. Sounds impressive until you realize his losses to Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall were both caused by guys who could wrestle him into next week. Meanwhile, Almeida is the human equivalent of a Roomba on steroids: he averages 6.58 takedowns per fight and absorbs just 0.89 significant strikes per minute. If this were a chess match, Almeida would be checkmating Volkov before the first pawn moves.
News from the Trenches
Let’s talk recent form. Volkov last fought in December 2024, losing a split decision to Ciryl Gane. That fight was like watching a librarian try to arm-wrestle a bouncer—respectable effort, but not a great outcome. Almeida, on the other hand, steamrolled Serghei Spivac in January 2025 with a first-round TKO. If Spivac’s a couch, Almeida just set it on fire with a fire extinguisher.
Injuries? No major ones reported, but Volkov’s tall, narrow stance is basically a “Take Me Down” sign for a wrestler. Almeida’s game plan is as simple as ordering pizza: close the distance, secure top position, and let the ground-and-pound do the work.
The Humor Section: Because MMA Needs More Laughs
Volkov’s takedown defense is like a sieve that’s been told a bad joke—porous and easily penetrated. His 72% mark sounds solid until you realize Almeida’s takedown rate is so high, he could probably drag a kangaroo into a wrestling hold if he wanted.
And let’s not forget Volkov’s lack of knockout power. He’s the MMA version of a toaster oven: reliable, safe, and utterly useless in a war of attrition. Meanwhile, Almeida’s wrestling is so dominant, he once submitted a training partner who was wearing a cast. If this fight were a movie, Almeida would be the villain who monologues about “dominance” while Volkov nervously checks his watch.
Prediction: The Inevitable Submission
Putting it all together, this is a mismatch made for statisticians and late-night comedy bits. Almeida’s wrestling is a 7.5-point spread (per the odds) on steroids. Volkov’s striking won’t matter if Almeida turns him into a mat-warming device. The Russian’s last loss to Gane? A split decision. This time? Expect a stoppage via TKO or rear-naked choke, depending on how much Almeida enjoys making Volkov look like a deflated balloon.
Final Verdict: Bet on Jailton Almeida by stoppage. It’s the statistical choice, the logical choice, and the only choice if you want to avoid Volkov’s “I’ll be back” losses. Unless you’re a masochist who lives for last-second miracles, Almeida’s the man.
Catch the action at 22:00 MSK in Abu Dhabi, or tune in to your favorite bookmaker’s live stream. Just don’t bet your grandma’s cake mix on this one—unless you’re a gambler with a death wish. 🥂
Created: Oct. 25, 2025, 12:57 a.m. GMT