Prediction: Johnny Eblen VS Costello Van Steenis 2025-07-19
Johnny Eblen vs. Costello Van Steenis: A Tale of Perfection vs. “I’ve Lost Before, So I Know How to Win”
Let’s cut to the chase: This fight is like betting on a shark in a kiddie pool versus a determined goldfish with a death wish. The numbers don’t lie. Johnny Eblen, the 16-0 PFL middleweight champion, is priced at 1.14 (decimal odds) across major books, implying a 87.7% chance to win. Meanwhile, Costello Van Steenis, the 16-3 Spanish challenger, sits at 5.0-6.0, translating to a 16.7%-20% chance. If this were a coin flip, Eblen would be the coin, the table, and the guy flipping it while reciting the rules.
Parsing the Odds: Why Eblen’s Perfect Record is a Mathematical Marvel
Eblen’s implied probability of 87.7% isn’t just a number—it’s a statistical middle finger to chaos. In MMA, such lopsided odds usually reflect a combination of form, experience, and intimidation. Van Steenis, though 4-1 in his last five, has never faced a fighter with Eblen’s unblemished resume. The PFL’s own promotional material calls Eblen “unstoppable,” which is the sportswriting equivalent of a fire alarm in a gas station.
Van Steenis’s argument—that his three career losses will help him “know what it’s like to lose”—is as convincing as a vegan arguing with a steakhouse. “The game plan is to be violent with my hands and feet,” he declared, which sounds less like a strategy and more like a parenting manual for a toddler’s tantrum.
News Digest: Van Steenis’ “Edge” is a Fancy Name for Desperation
Van Steenis claims his losses have taught him resilience. Let’s unpack that. In MMA, “resilience” is code for “I hope I don’t panic when I’m getting punched.” Eblen, meanwhile, is the human embodiment of a “no-loss warranty.” His record is so pristine, it’s starting to raise existential questions: Has he ever even been close to losing? Spoiler: No.
Van Steenis also wants to be Spain’s second world-title holder, following Ilia Topuria. Let’s just say if he needs a pep talk, he could always call Topuria and ask, “How’s being a champion treating you? Sob… it’s lonely at the top, isn’t it?*”
Humorous Spin: This Fight is a Foregone Conclusion… With a Side of Absurdity
Imagine Van Steenis’s strategy: “I’m gonna come out violent from Round 1 to 5!” That’s like saying, “I’m gonna eat the whole cake in one bite.” Eblen, on the other hand, could probably win this fight while texting his mom. The PFL should sell a “Johnny Eblen Napping Edition” replay—charge fans for the privilege of watching him sleepwalk to victory.
Van Steenis’s “aggressive hands and feet” plan is also about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. Eblen’s defense is likely tighter than a nun’s budget, and Van Steenis’s 16.7% chance of winning is about the same as me correctly guessing your favorite color while blindfolded.
Prediction: Eblen Wins, Probably by Knockout—Because Drama is Overrated
The math, the form, and the sheer absurdity of Van Steenis’s confidence all point to one outcome: Johnny Eblen retains his title, likely via stoppage. The implied odds suggest bookmakers see this as a 5-round coronation, not a competitive fight. Van Steenis’s “violent” approach might as well be a toddler swinging a water gun at a tank.
So, bet on Eblen unless you enjoy the thrill of losing money while narrating a slow-motion disaster. As for Van Steenis? He’ll go down in history as the guy who tried to “be violent” against a fighter who’s never even heard of violence.
Final Scoreboard: Eblen 10-0 Van Steenis. The real question is, why is this even happening? Did Van Steenis sign up for MMA: The Game or MMA: The Sim?
Created: July 19, 2025, 5:59 p.m. GMT