Prediction: Justin Gaethje VS Ilia Topuria 2025-12-31
The Gaethje vs. Topuria Showdown: A Battle of Bets, Braggadocio, and Bizarre Rivalries
Let’s cut to the chase: If the UFC matches up Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria, it’s less of a title fight and more of a chaotic circus. The odds, however, are as clear as a ref’s whistle. According to BetOnline.ag, Topuria is a 83.3% favorite (decimal odds: 1.2), while Gaethje, the “Savage” himself, is a 20.6% long shot (odds: 4.85). For context, those numbers imply Topuria is as likely to win as a vegan at a steakhouse, while Gaethje’s chances are about as reliable as a smartphone in the ocean. But let’s dig into why this fight is as likely to happen as a snowstorm in July.
Parsing the Odds: Why This Fight Feels Like a Math Class
Topuria’s dominance in the lightweight division is as undeniable as gravity. His 13-1 record includes a TKO of Charles Oliveira and a submission of Yair Rodriguez, making him the kind of fighter who turns opponents into human Jell-O. Gaethje, meanwhile, is a wrecking ball with a 22-3 record, but his last fight—a brutal loss to Alexander Volkanovski—left him needing a new face and a therapist. The implied probabilities? Topuria’s 83% edge suggests bookmakers see this as a foregone conclusion, like predicting a toddler will spill juice at a party.
But here’s the rub: Gaethje recently said a fight with Topuria is “unlikely in the near term,” citing uncertainty over the champion’s return. Meanwhile, Paddy Pimblett—currently 7th in the rankings—is throwing a soap dispenser at the entire matchmaking process, demanding a title shot like a petulant toddler.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Rivalries, and a White House Whim
Gaethje’s camp has framed this potential matchup as a patriotic duty. “I’d love to fight at the White House,” he said, “to represent the USA.” Let’s unpack that. First, the White House hosting a UFC event is about as plausible as a peace treaty between cats and vacuum cleaners. Second, Gaethje’s “readiness” ignores the fact that he’s 35 and his last fight left him looking like a deflated balloon animal.
Topuria, meanwhile, is playing the long game. He’s stalling Pimblett with the charm of a traffic jam, while his Dagestani rival Islam Makhachev scoffs at the idea of Pimblett being a “great challenge.” Makhachev’s logic? “Nobody has tested Paddy before.” Translation: Even your grandma could beat him. The UFC, desperate to capitalize on its new TV deal, wants Topuria to fight now, but the champion’s team is dragging their feet like tourists in a DMV.
Humorous Spin: Soap Dispensers, Circus Acrobats, and Rabid Squirrels
Let’s talk about Paddy Pimblett. The man threw a soap dispenser at Ilia Topuria in 2021. Yes, like a real-life Shrek villain, he hurled a plastic bottle of Dial into the void, screaming, “I’M COMING FOR YOU, B****!” It’s the kind of drama that makes “The Sopranos” look tame.
As for Gaethje, his claim that he’d “never refused a fight” is as credible as a casino claiming it’s “just for fun.” His recent pullout from an October bout (due to injury) and his White House fantasy feel less like a fighter’s roadmap and more like a man who bought a GPS and forgot how to use it.
And Topuria? The UFC’s “poster boy” is as slippery as a bar of that soap Pimblett threw. With a defense record of 12-0, he’s the MMA version of a circus acrobat—graceful, unpredictable, and likely to leave you with a broken nose if you blink.
Prediction: The Savage Gets Served Soup
Putting it all together: The odds favor Topuria, the news suggests this fight is as likely as a vegan steak, and the drama is enough to make Shakespeare weep. If this matchup does happen on December 31, 2025, Topuria will likely win via a technical decision or TKO, much like a chef flipping a pancake. Gaethje, for all his bravado, looks like a man who ordered a steak dinner and got a salad.
Final Verdict: Bet on Ilia Topuria. Unless you enjoy watching history repeat itself, like betting on a rabbit to outrun a tortoise. 🥊👑
Note: This analysis assumes the fight actually happens. If Pimblett keeps throwing soap, the UFC might need to ban bathrooms from the building.
Created: Nov. 1, 2025, 10:28 p.m. GMT