Prediction: Kansas City Royals VS Arizona Diamondbacks 2025-07-06
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals: A Tale of Two Parks and a First-Time Starter
By The Handicapper with a Taser and a Spreadsheet
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-126) host the Kansas City Royals (+228) in a rematch of their recent 9-3 KC victory, but this time, the D-backs are leaning on Anthony DeSclafani to make his first start of the season. Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen will toe the rubber for the Royals, who have somehow managed a 47.4% win rate as underdogs this year—defying the 41% MLB underdog average like they’re playing a different sport.
Key Numbers to Know:
- Arizona’s Edge: 4th in MLB in home runs (131), 50.8% win rate as favorites.
- Kansas City’s Quirk: 27th in slugging (.366), but 47.4% win rate as underdogs—like a underdog version of a “win by committee” strategy.
- Pitching Notes: DeSclafani’s first start of 2025 is a wildcard; Lorenzen’s 4.38 ERA this season is about as reliable as a toaster in a thunderstorm.
The Math of Madness:
- Diamondbacks’ Implied Probability: -126 → 55.75% (but their actual win rate as favorites is just 50.8%).
- Royals’ Implied Probability: +228 → 44.25% (but their actual underdog win rate is 47.4%).
- EV Split: Royals have a 3.15% edge over the line’s expectation. Arizona’s overvalued by 4.95%.
Why the Royals Could Steal This:
1. DeSclafani’s Debut: First-time starters in MLB are 14-19 this season. The D-backs’ offense? They just got shut out by these same Royals.
2. Chase Field’s Curse: Arizona’s 46-over-9.5-run games this year? That’s 53% of their games. But KC’s .366 SLG is the 27th-worst in MLB—like watching a toddler try to hit a tennis ball with a broomstick.
3. Historical Context: The Royals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with a winning home record. Confidence is a weird drug.
The Verdict:
Best Bet: Kansas City Royals (+228 Moneyline)
Yes, the underdog. Yes, against a team that hits home runs like they’re on clearance. But the math says the Royals are 3.15% more likely to win than the line assumes, and DeSclafani’s first start is a ticking time bomb. Take the points, trust the 47.4%, and hope Michael Lorenzen doesn’t throw a no-hitter.
Honorable Mention (for the Over/Under):
Skip the 9.5-run over. Arizona’s “over” rate is inflated by 53% of their games going over, but KC’s offense is so anemic, even Chase Field’s juiced grass might yawn at their attempts. Take the Under 9.5 (-110) if you’re feeling spicy.
Final Thought: If you bet on Arizona, you’re banking on DeSclafani being the next Clayton Kershaw. If you bet on Kansas City, you’re betting he’s the guy who forgot his fork in the 7th inning. The math? It’s on the fork.
Created: July 6, 2025, 1:32 p.m. GMT