Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks VS Iowa State Cyclones 2025-11-22
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones: A Tale of Two Turkeys (And One Very Tired Punt Returner)
Ladies and gentlemen, gather ‘round for a collision of Big 12 mediocrity, where two teams with combined records that could make a statistician weep square off in a battle for bowl eligibility and pride. Kansas (5-5) and Iowa State (6-4) meet in Ames, where the Cyclones are favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under is a modest 55.5—about the same number of times Iowa State’s quarterback, Rocco Becht, has probably said “I need a new playbook” this season.
Parsing the Odds: A Numbers Game
Let’s start with the cold, hard math. Iowa State’s implied probability of winning, based on the odds, hovers around 61% (thanks to their -3.5 line and decimal odds of ~1.6). Kansas? A paltry 43%, despite holding a 53-45-6 all-time edge. But here’s the twist: Kansas has won the last three meetings, including a 2021 game where Iowa State’s punt returner, Aiden Flora, scored a touchdown… and then promptly retired from punting. The Cyclones are seeking revenge, but their offense is about as reliable as a toaster oven in a monsoon.
Statistically, both teams are eerily similar:
- Offense: Kansas averages 30.2 PPG (54th), Iowa State 27.1 (70th).
- Defense: Kansas allows 25.2 PPG (74th), Iowa State 25.2 (same rank).
- Run games: Iowa State’s rushing attack (163.7 YPG) vs. Kansas’s third-worst Big 12 run defense (169.5 YPG allowed). It’s like watching a Mack truck try to break through a sieve.
The key stat? Iowa State’s passing offense, which ranks 68th in FBS (230.3 YPG). Rocco Becht, their QB, has thrown 12 TDs and 9 INTs this season—imagine a magician who occasionally sets the stage on fire. Meanwhile, Kansas’s Jalon Daniels is a dual-threat dynamo (21 TDs, 3 INTs, 345 rushing yards), but he’ll need to avoid tripping over his own cleats (a habit that cost him a fumble last week).
Digesting the News: Injuries, Momentum, and One Very Confused Officiating Crew
Iowa State: The Cyclones’ recent 20-17 win over TCU was a nail-biter, but it came at a cost. QB Rocco Becht is dealing with “undisclosed ailments,” which in football code means “we’re not telling you if he’s hungover or has a herniated disc.” His performance against TCU? A dismal 9-of-24 for 111 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs—about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. Offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser admitted they need to “establish rhythm in the pass game,” which sounds less like a strategy and more like a plea to the football gods.
Kansas: The Jayhawks are coming off a bye week (their secret weapon) and a 24-20 loss to Arizona. But here’s the silver lining: Their defense has allowed just 25.2 PPG, and their run defense, while leaky, might finally get a chance to rest after three straight games of holding up against Oklahoma’s “mystery meat” offensive line. QB Jalon Daniels is a beast, but he’ll need to avoid the Iowa State defense, which ranks 73rd in pass defense (222.9 YPG allowed).
The Humor: Why This Game Feels Like a Bad Joke
Let’s be real: This game is a sitcom. Iowa State’s passing attack is so inconsistent, it’s like a toddler trying to assemble IKEA furniture. Rocco Becht needs to stop looking like he’s playing chess against a room full of grandmasters—just throw the ball, Rocco! Kansas’s run defense is so porous, they’d let a zucchini grow through their line.
And let’s not forget the Iowa State punt returner, who’s still haunted by that 2021 game. Is he out for redemption, or is he just hoping the Jayhawks bring snacks for the postgame celebration?
Prediction: Who’s Cooking Dinner?
While Iowa State’s 3.5-point line suggests the oddsmakers trust the Cyclones’ run game to exploit Kansas’s soft underbelly, the truth is this: Becht’s arm is a liability, and Kansas’s offense is too balanced to ignore. Daniels has the tools to exploit Iowa State’s pass defense, and the Jayhawks’ recent dominance in this series (3 wins, including a 24-20 thriller last year) gives them the psychological edge.
Final Score Prediction: Kansas 27, Iowa State 24.
Why? Because Iowa State’s passing game is a ship without a sail, and Kansas’s bye week rest will let them play like a team that’s finally tired of being the “also-ran” in the Big 12. Plus, who doesn’t want to see Jalon Daniels run for a touchdown while Rocco Becht stares at his dropped pass like it’s a betrayal?
Bet: Take Kansas +3.5. It’s a spicy underdog pick, and if you’re feeling extra, grab the over 55.5—because in this game, points are as rare as a Cyclone fan not complaining about their QB.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go cry in a defensive coordinator’s office about why we didn’t fix the run game earlier.
Created: Nov. 22, 2025, 12:50 p.m. GMT