Prediction: Kansas St Wildcats VS Nebraska Cornhuskers 2025-11-21
Nebraska vs. Kansas State: A Three-Point Joust Where the Cornhuskers Have the Upper Hand
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Kansas State Wildcats are set to clash in a non-conference showdown that’s less “March Madness” and more “November Nervous Breakdown.” Both teams are 5-0, but let’s cut through the noise and admit: this is the NBA’s In-Game commercial break for college basketball—suspenseful, slightly overhyped, and featuring a lot of three-pointers.
Parsing the Odds: A Numbers Game
Let’s start with the cold, hard math. Nebraska is a 1.5-point favorite, per the BETMGM line, which implies a 54.5% implied probability of victory (thanks to decimal odds of -110 on the spread). Kansas State’s line of +1.5 suggests a 45.5% chance, but here’s why the Cornhuskers’ numbers scream “bet me”:
- Field Goal Defense: Nebraska’s opponents are shooting a frigid 38.3% from the field, which is like trying to sink a basketball while blindfolded. Kansas State’s defense? Not so much—teams are nailing shots at 44.8%, a rate that would make a circus sharpshooter blush.
- Three-Point Overload: Nebraska forces opponents into 12.2 three-point attempts per game, ranking 40th nationally. Kansas State’s defense, meanwhile, allows 11.2 threes per game but at a 45.9% clip (5th in the country). The Wildcats’ opponents will either drain bombs or freeze like deer in headlights. Nebraska’s foes? They’re making just 8 threes per game at 32.5%. Yikes.
- Rebounding Dominance: Nebraska leads the Big Ten in defensive rebounds (28.0 per game), anchored by Sam Hoiberg’s 5.4 per contest. Kansas State? They’re the team that lost its lunchbox—no, wait, that’s just me. The Wildcats average a pedestrian 32.4 defensive rebounds per game.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Fatigue, and a Star Named PJ Haggerty
Both teams played two games in two days, which is the NBA equivalent of playing a back-to-back without a trainer, Gatorade, or dignity. Nebraska’s recent win over New Mexico required weathering a late rally, while Kansas State blew out Mississippi State. But here’s the rub:
- PJ Haggerty, Kansas State’s Human Highlight Reel, dropped 37 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds in the Wildcats’ last game. He’s the kind of player who makes you check your TV to see if the volume’s up. But can he replicate that magic after back-to-back games? Nebraska’s defense, which holds opponents to a -100 scoring differential, might have other plans.
- Nebraska’s Jamarques Lawrence, who scored 21 against New Mexico, is the team’s offensive sparkplug. His ability to create space against Kansas State’s porous interior defense could be the difference.
- Short Rest and Fatigue: The total was initially set at 163.5 but has since inflated to 167.5–169.0, a red flag for sharpsters. High-paced games with tired legs often lead to clanked threes and turnovers—exactly what Nebraska’s defense craves.
Humorous Spin: Because Basketball Needs More Laughs
Imagine Kansas State’s offense as a firehose: powerful, unrelenting, and occasionally spraying water on the wrong target. Nebraska’s defense? A coffee mug with a 12-ounce capacity for rebounds and a “Do Not Disturb” sign for three-point shooters.
- On Kansas State’s Three-Pointers: “They’re 5th in the nation at 45.9% from deep. That’s impressive… until you realize Nebraska’s defense makes opponents shoot like they’re throwing darts while riding a unicycle.”
- On Nebraska’s Rebounding: “Sam Hoiberg’s 5.4 rebounds per game? That’s not a stat—it’s a vacuum cleaner with a college ID.”
- On the Total Line: “The oddsmakers think this game will score 168 points. I say it’ll be lower, because when you’re tired, even the most explosive offenses start arguing with their shot selectors.”
Prediction: Why Nebraska Wins, Unless the Refs Are Sleeping
Nebraska’s defense is a fortress, and Kansas State’s offense, while explosive, lacks the consistency to breach it. The Cornhuskers’ ability to force turnovers, dominate the glass, and suffocate perimeter shooting gives them a clear edge.
Final Score Prediction: Nebraska 78, Kansas State 72.
How It Unfolds: Nebraska’s half-court defense saps Kansas State’s energy, limiting Haggerty to 20 points (down from 37). The Cornhuskers’ rebounding leads to second-chance points, and their three-point specialists (looking at you, Pryce Sandfort) hit 12-of-20 from deep. Kansas State’s offense, fatigued and frustrated, starts chucking up bricks in the fourth quarter—because nothing says “dominance” like a team missing 10 straight threes while the crowd chants, “We want March!”
Bet: Nebraska -1.5. Take the points, grab a seat, and enjoy the show—just don’t be surprised if Nebraska’s defense turns this into a three-point clinic… on how to not take threes.
Created: Nov. 22, 2025, 2:01 a.m. GMT