Prediction: Kevin Borjas VS Su Mudaerji 2025-08-23

Kevin Borjas vs. Su Mudaerji: A Clash of Gallo and Dragon
UFC Shanghai 2025, August 23 – Because Why Not Fight at 5 AM?

Parse the Odds: A Numbers Game
Let’s start with the cold, hard math. Su Mudaerji is the favorite on paper, with decimal odds of ~1.57 (implying a 64.9% chance to win), while Kevin Borjas sits at ~2.45 (40.8%). The spread (-3.5 for Mudaerji, +3.5 for Borjas) suggests bookmakers expect a lopsided decision, yet the “Over 2.5 rounds” line is priced at 1.45 (a 69% implied chance of a stoppage). This is a curious cocktail: the favorite is expected to win, but the market also thinks the fight will end early. How do we reconcile this? Simple: either Mudaerji is a one-round wrecking ball, or Borjas is about to pull off the MMA equivalent of a Hail Mary in a sport that doesn’t have Hail Marys.

Digest the News: Injuries, Form, and Metaphors
Kevin “Gallo Negro” Borjas is a featherweight with the striking arsenal of a Renaissance warrior—spinning kicks that make you question your life choices, and a ground game that’s “improved.” He’s coming off a win over “Lazy Boy” (a nickname so self-explanatory it deserves its own Wikipedia page) and has re-signed with Dana White, which is MMA’s version of getting a standing ovation from a room full of sharks.

Su Mudaerji, meanwhile, is a 24-5 Chinese dragon with a UFC record that reads like a rollercoaster: a split-decision win over Mitch Raposo, but three losses in his past five. His most recent victory? A first-round finish of Anthony Smith, which sounds impressive until you realize Smith’s career résumé includes a loss to a man named “The Hangman.” Mudaerji’s problem? Consistency. He’s 2-3 in his last five, which in MMA is like a dating app profile that’s 50% flirty and 50% “accidentally posted draft.”

Humorous Spin: The Absurdity of 5 AM Brawls
Imagine this: It’s 5 AM in Shanghai. You’re half-awake, sipping coffee that tastes like regret, and suddenly you’re expected to care about a spinning back kick. Borjas, the “Gallo Negro,” is essentially a chicken in a superhero movie—clucky but deadly. Mudaerji? He’s the guy who tried to learn MMA from YouTube and now fights like a confused interpretive dancer.

The fight’s early start time? A cruel joke. If Mudaerji’s brain needs 90 minutes to boot up, he’ll be too groggy to throw a punch. Borjas, on the other hand, might thrive in the chaos, like a night owl battling a morning lark who forgot to set his alarm.

Prediction: The Rooster Crows at Dawn
Here’s the rub: The odds favor Mudaerji, but the narrative loves an underdog. Borjas has the tools to exploit Mudaerji’s inconsistency—his improved ground game could neutralize the Chinese fighter’s reach, and his mental toughness (read: “I will not trip over my own ambition”) suggests he’ll hang around for all three rounds. The “Over 2.5 rounds” line is a red herring; Borjas isn’t the type to cash in on a quick KO. He’s a craftsman, the kind of guy who’d make you watch his masterpiece for 15 minutes before declaring victory.

Final Verdict: Bet on Kevin Borjas to win by unanimous decision, unless Mudaerji wakes up, magic happens, and the universe decides to respect the odds. But let’s be real—this fight is Borjas’ to lose. As they say in Shanghai: “He who strikes like a rooster, crows like a champion.”

Stream it on UFC Fight Pass, or whatever platform you’re forced to use based on your region. Good luck, and may your coffee hold you. 🥊☕

Created: Aug. 23, 2025, 4:21 a.m. GMT

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