Prediction: Kevin Lee VS Gadzhi Rabadanov 2025-06-20
Witty and Tongue-in-Cheek Analysis: Rabadanov vs. Lee – A Tale of Two Fighters
Alright, folks, let’s cut to the chase: Gadzhi Rabadanov is a 1.11 favorite, which means the books are basically handing him the belt in advance. Kevin Lee, meanwhile, is priced at 7.25, which is MMA’s version of “here’s a participation trophy for showing up.” But let’s not let the numbers fool us—this is a classic case of “the underdog has a 35% chance to win, but the odds say 13.8%. Split the difference, and you get a 24.4% chance. That’s not a sure thing, but it’s better than the bookies think.”
### Key Stats & Context
- Rabadanov: 11-fight winning streak, PFL Lightweight Champion, and a man who claims he’s “focused on perfection.” He’s the MMA version of a spreadsheet-optimized robot, with no weaknesses (or so he says).
- Lee: A former UFC title challenger with a rollercoaster career (14-10-1), who’s entered this tournament as a late replacement. His motivation? Well, let’s just say if you’re fighting someone who’s “taking everyone out regardless of who’s in front of me,” you probably don’t want to be the guy who’s “just here for the paycheck.”
### Injuries & Motivation
No major injuries reported, but Lee’s late entry and Rabadanov’s comments about “extra media attention” hint at a potential lack of urgency from the veteran. Rabadanov, on the other hand, is chasing legacy and a $500k payday. If you’ve ever seen a man with nothing to lose go full berserker, Lee might be that guy.
### Odds Breakdown
- Rabadanov (-1000): Implied probability of ~90.09% (adjusted for vigorish: ~86.7%).
- Lee (+625): Implied probability of ~13.8% (adjusted for vigorish: ~13.3%).
### Expected Value (EV) & Underdog Split
- Lee’s Adjusted Probability: 13.8% (calculated) vs. 35% (MMA underdog rate). Splitting the difference gives 24.4%.
- EV for Lee: (24.4% * 6.25) - (75.6% * 1) = +0.769 (positive EV).
- EV for Rabadanov: (86.7% * 0.11) - (13.3% * 1) = -0.038 (slightly negative).
### The Verdict
While Rabadanov’s 11-fight streak and champion pedigree scream “bet on this guy,” the numbers tell a different story. Kevin Lee is undervalued by the market. His 24.4% adjusted probability (vs. 13.8% implied) gives him a positive expected value, making him the smarter play despite the long odds.
Best Bet: Kevin Lee (+625)
- Why? The EV is in his favor, and Rabadanov’s “take them all out” mentality might
Created: June 21, 2025, 2:08 a.m. GMT