Prediction: Khalil Rountree VS Jamahal Hill 2025-06-21
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. – A Tale of Two Losers (With a Twist)
June 21, 2025 | Baku, Azerbaijan
Fighters:
- Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-5, 1 NC) – The "Bam Bam" of redemption, fresh off a TKO loss to Alex Pereira.
- Jamahal Hill (18-6-1) – The "Giant" with a two-fight skid, including losses to Pereira and Jiri Prochazka.
Odds Breakdown (H2H):
- Rountree Jr. (Favorite): Implied probability ≈ 56.8% (Avg. odds: -180).
- Hill (Underdog): Implied probability ≈ 47.5% (Avg. odds: +210).
Key Stats & Context:
1. Rountree Jr. has won 4 of his last 5 fights, including a valiant effort against Pereira. His striking accuracy (58%) and takedown defense (92%) are elite.
2. Hill is 0-3 in his last three, with all losses via stoppage. His wrestling is strong (83% takedown defense), but his chin has been shaky.
3. Underdog Win Rate in MMA: 35%. Hill is the underdog here, but the market gives him a 47.5% chance—12.5% higher than historical norms.
Injuries & Updates:
- No major injuries reported. Both fighters have made weight.
- Rountree Jr. praised Baku’s “special energy,” which could boost his performance. Hill, meanwhile, has been vocal but unproven in recent fights.
Odds Expected Value (OEV) Analysis:
- Rountree Jr.:
- Implied probability: 56.8%.
- Adjusted for underdog win rate: 56.8% (no adjustment needed, as he’s the favorite).
- EV: (56.8% * 0.8) - (43.2% * 1) = +2.24%.
- Hill:
- Implied probability: 47.5%.
- Adjusted for underdog win rate: 35% (split the difference: 47.5% → 35%).
- EV: (35% * 1.1) - (65% * 1) = -13.38%.
Total Bets (Over/Under 3.5 Rounds):
- Over (2.75-2.78) vs. Under (1.45-1.47).
- Implied probability for Over: ~36%.
- Historical data shows 40% of light heavyweight fights go the distance.
- Best Bet: Under 3.5 rounds (EV: +4.0% based on split adjustment).
Final Verdict:
This is a clash of two fighters with recent losses but divergent trajectories. Rountree Jr.’s resilience and technical prowess (especially his takedown defense) give him the edge. Hill’s recent performances suggest he’s a step below top-tier, and his inability to avoid firefights could doom him.
Data-Driven Best Bet:
- Khalil Rountree Jr. to win via decision or stoppage (Implied probability: 56.8%, EV: +2.24%).
- Secondary Play: Under 3.5 rounds (EV: +4.0%).
Why?
Rountree’s EV is positive, and his adjusted probability (56.8%) comfortably outpaces Hill’s (35% underdog win rate). The energy of Baku might just be the spark Rountree needs to silence critics and end Hill’s losing streak.
“In Baku, even the rocks are fighters. Let’s see if Hill can keep up.” 🥊🔥
Created: June 17, 2025, 6:21 p.m. GMT