Prediction: KT Wiz VS SSG Landers 2025-07-10
KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Raging Underdog
July 10, 2025 – KBO Season Finale?
The Setup:
The KT Wiz, fresh off a 10-3 dismantling of the SSG Landers last week, are now facing their former victims in a rematch. But here’s the twist: KT’s starting pitcher, William Cuevas, is on thin ice. The 30-year-old Patrick Murphy, a former MLB journeyman with a 4.76 ERA in 2022, is allegedly eyeing a social media takeover of the mound. Meanwhile, SSG’s Kim Seo-hyun, fresh off a 22nd save, is ready to avenge that 10-3 humiliation.
Key Stats & Context:
- KT Wiz: 3-game losing streak snapped with that 10-3 win over SSG. Their foreign rotation is in flux—Cuevas (5.40 ERA) vs. Murphy (MLB 35 games, 4.76 ERA in 2022).
- SSG Landers: 51-33-2 record, locked into the postseason. Their offense is red-hot, averaging 5.8 runs/game in July.
- Recent Matchup: KT crushed SSG 10-3, but SSG’s last game was a 10-3 win over Kia Tigers, suggesting they’re not a pushover.
Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline: SSG Landers (-150) vs. KT Wiz (+225).
- Implied probabilities: SSG = 60%, KT = 46%.
- Underdog Win Rate in Baseball: 41%.
- Favorite Win Rate: 59%.
Expected Value Calculations:
- SSG Landers: Split the difference between implied (60%) and favorite rate (59%) → 59.5% EV.
- KT Wiz: Split the difference between implied (46%) and underdog rate (41%) → 43.5% EV.
The Verdict:
SSG Landers are the smarter play here. Their implied probability (60%) slightly outpaces their adjusted EV (59.5%), giving them a +0.5% edge. KT’s “underdog discount” (+225) is tempting, but their pitching situation is a mess. Even if Murphy starts, his MLB pedigree doesn’t guarantee a repeat of KT’s 10-3 romp.
Witty Take:
KT’s social media-savvy foreign import, Patrick Murphy, might be the “next big thing”… or the next guy who gets roasted for a 5.40 ERA. SSG, on the other hand, is like that friend who always comes through after you trash-talk them. Don’t bet against the Landers—they’ve got the math, the momentum, and the revenge motive.
Final Pick: SSG Landers (-150)
Because even if KT’s pitcher is on TikTok, SSG’s lineup is on the postseason express.
Bonus Prop Bet:
Will KT’s starting pitcher be Cuevas or Murphy?
- Cuevas: -200 (implied 83%)
- Murphy: +350 (implied 28%)
Take Murphy +350. If nothing else, the drama is worth it.
Created: July 10, 2025, 4:02 a.m. GMT