Prediction: Las Vegas Aces VS Washington Mystics 2025-07-10
WNBA Showdown: Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics
July 10, 2025 | 11:30 PM ET | Washington Mystics (Home)
Key Context:
A’ja Wilson, the three-time WNBA MVP and the Aces’ offensive engine (21.9 PPG, 9 RPG), is questionable with a right wrist injury. Coach Becky Hammon confirmed she’s “not 100%” and may sit out. The Aces are already reeling from a 3-8 stretch and face the 4-6 Mystics, who are surging up the standings.
Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline:
- Las Vegas Aces: +210 (47.6% implied probability)
- Washington Mystics: -177 (56.5% implied probability)
- Spread: Mystics -2.5 (-110) / Aces +2.5 (-110)
- Total: 157.5 (Even odds on Over/Under)
The Math:
1. Implied Probability vs. Reality:
- The Aces’ implied win probability (47.6%) is overinflated given Wilson’s potential absence. Historically, WNBA underdogs win 30% of the time. If Wilson sits, the Aces’ actual win chance plummets closer to 25-30%.
- The Mystics’ implied probability (56.5%) is undervalued. With the Aces’ injury woes and the Mystics’ recent momentum, their true win probability is likely 65-70%.
- Expected Value (EV):
- Aces (Underdog):
EV = (Underdog Win Rate - Implied Probability) Ă— Payout
= (30% - 47.6%) Ă— $210 = -$37.20 (Negative EV).
- Mystics (Favorite):
EV = (Favorite Win Rate - Implied Probability) Ă— Payout
= (70% - 56.5%) Ă— $177 = +$24.29 (Positive EV).
Why the Mystics Win This One:
- Injury Impact: Without Wilson, the Aces lose their best scorer, playmaker, and defensive anchor. The Mystics’ defense (10th in points allowed) will exploit this void.
- Recent Form: The Mystics have won 4 of 6, while the Aces have lost 5 of 7. The Aces’ schedule strength is the 4th-toughest in the league.
- Momentum: The Mystics are 6-3 in their last 9 games against teams with a .500 record or worse.
The Verdict:
Bet the Washington Mystics (-2.5) at -110.
- Why: The spread accounts for the Aces’ potential underperformance. Even if Wilson plays, her effectiveness will be limited. The Mystics’ +2.5 line offers value, and their 65% win probability (vs. 35% for the Aces) makes them a lock.
Bonus Pick: Under 157.5 Points (-110).
- With Wilson sidelined, both teams’ offenses could sputter. The Aces rank 13th in offensive efficiency, and the Mystics are 11th in defensive efficiency.
Final Thought:
The Aces are a “star-dependent” team, and without Wilson, they’re just a glorified WNBA version of the 2024 Chicago Bulls. The Mystics are the smarter play—unless you fancy betting on a 30% underdog to pull off a miracle. But hey, that’s the WNBA! 🏀✨
EV: +$24.29 on the Mystics. Let’s go!
Created: July 10, 2025, 6:25 a.m. GMT