Prediction: Laura Siegemund VS Aryna Sabalenka 2025-07-07
Wimbledon Semifinal Showdown: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Laura Siegemund
Where the Odds Are Shorter Than a Wimbledon Straw, and the Underdog Is Priced Like a Parking Ticket
The Setup
Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 1 and top seed, is here to win her first Wimbledon title. She’s steamrolled through the draw, including a grueling quarterfinal against Elise Mertens. Laura Siegemund, the 37-year-old WTA 104, is here on a Cinderella run, having stunned Madison Keys and others. She’s now in her second Grand Slam quarterfinal (after 2020 French Open) and is playing like a woman who’s heard the clock ticking.
The Odds (and Why They’re Ridiculous)
Sabalenka is a ridiculous favorite, with decimal odds hovering around 1.04–1.06 (implied probability: 95%+). Siegemund? A laughable 8.9–12.0 (implied probability: 7.7%–9.5%). These numbers make it look like Sabalenka is playing a practice match against a robot. But let’s not forget: in tennis, underdogs win 30% of the time. That’s not a typo.
The Math (Because You’re Paying Me to Do This)
- Sabalenka’s Implied Probability: 95% (per decimal odds).
- Historical Favorite Win Rate: 70% (since underdogs win 30%).
- Split the Difference: (95% + 70%) / 2 = 82.5%.
- Expected Value (EV): 82.5% - 95% = -12.5% (terrible bet).
- Siegemund’s Implied Probability: 7.7% (per decimal odds).
- Historical Underdog Win Rate: 30%.
- Split the Difference: (7.7% + 30%) / 2 = 18.85%.
- Expected Value (EV): 18.85% - 7.7% = +11.15% (solid value).
The Verdict
Sabalenka is the most likely winner (82.5% per adjusted math), but the best value lies with Siegemund. The odds are so short on Sabalenka that even a slight edge for the underdog makes her a smarter play.
Key Factors
- Sabalenka’s Edge: World No. 1, peak form, and a killer serve. She’s won 12 of her last 13 matches.
- Siegemund’s Spark: The 37-year-old has been playing like a woman possessed this tournament. She’s beaten top-20 players and has the mental grit of someone who’s “seen it all.”
- Injuries/Updates: None reported for either player.
The Pick
Take Laura Siegemund (+8.9) for Value
Yes, she’s a long shot. But at these prices, a 30% chance to win translates to +11.15% expected value. If you want to play it safe, back Sabalenka, but if you want to play with a bit of flair (and a mathematically sound edge), go with the German grandma.
Final Score Prediction
Sabalenka in three sets (7-5, 6-2), but don’t be surprised if Siegemund pulls off the shocker. After all, Wimbledon is where 18-year-olds become legends and 37-year-olds become… still legends.
TL;DR
- Best Bet: Laura Siegemund (+8.9) for the value.
- Most Likely Outcome: Aryna Sabalenka (-150+).
- Witty Take: The bookies are so confident in Sabalenka, they’re pricing this like a foregone conclusion. But tennis has a way of reminding us that even the best can trip over their own shoelaces on grass.
Created: July 6, 2025, 10:51 p.m. GMT