Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego VS Brandon Nakashima 2025-07-05
Wimbledon Round of 32: Lorenzo Sonego vs. Brandon Nakashima – A Tale of Two Tails (and Serves)
The Setup:
Lorenzo Sonego (No. 47) and Brandon Nakashima (No. 34) clash in a third-round Wimbledon showdown that reads like a Netflix plot twist: “The Underdog Who Should’ve Been a Favorite, But Isn’t.” Sonego, the Italian enigma with a 1-0 head-to-head edge (thanks to a 2025 Hong Kong Open romp), now faces Nakashima, the 29th seed who’s as smooth as his first-serve percentage (83% to Sonego’s 76%). Grass? No problem for either, but let’s not pretend rankings mean anything when Nakashima’s last name rhymes with “money” and Sonego’s just… Sonego.
The Numbers Game:
- Nakashima’s Edge: His 83% first-serve winning rate is like a Swiss Army knife for a tennis player—sharp, reliable, and slightly intimidating. Sonego’s 76%? More of a “hope for the best” vibe.
- Head-to-Head: Sonego’s lone win came on hard courts in Hong Kong. Grass is a different beast, and Nakashima’s recent four-set grind against Reilly Opelka (6-4, 4-6, 7-6, 6-4) proves he thrives under pressure. Sonego? He survived Nikoloz Basilashvili in four sets too, but let’s not kid ourselves—his third-round Wimbledon run is more “survival horror” than “glory.”
- Odds Breakdown:
- Nakashima: Decimal odds range from 1.42 (Caesars) to 1.5 (Fanatics). Implied probability: ~70-71%.
- Sonego: Decimal odds range from 2.59 (MyBookie.ag) to 2.75 (Caesars). Implied probability: ~36-38%.
- Underdog Win Rate in Tennis: 30%. Sonego’s implied probability is 8.6% higher than the expected underdog rate—meaning bookmakers think he’s more likely to lose than the average Joe who bets on the 2024 U.S. Open final.
The EV Equation (Because You’re Here for the Math):
- Nakashima’s EV:
- Implied probability: 70.4% (from 1.42 odds).
- Expected favorite win rate: 70% (100% - 30% underdog rate).
- Difference: +0.4% (slightly overpriced, but not by much).
- Sonego’s EV:
- Implied probability: 38.6% (from 2.59 odds).
- Expected underdog win rate: 30%.
- Difference: +8.6% (overpriced like a $20 cup of Wimbledon tea).
The Verdict:
Nakashima is the slightly smarter bet, even if it feels like picking the “safe” option. His serve, recent form, and the fact that Sonego’s only win against him was on a surface that might as well be Mars, don’t exactly scream “upset.” But here’s the kicker: Sonego’s 38.6% implied probability is 8.6% higher than his expected 30%, meaning he’s a value play for the masochists who love underdogs.
Final Pick:
- Best Bet: Brandon Nakashima (-3.5 sets, 1.87). The spread reflects Nakashima’s slight edge, and the EV is just enough to make you feel like a genius when he closes it out in four.
- Dark Horse: Lorenzo Sonego (+3.5 sets, 1.81). If you’re into the “I bet on the guy who should’ve lost but didn’t” vibe, Sonego’s your guy. Just don’t expect to sleep well.
In Summary:
Nakashima is the tennis equivalent of a well-timed double-bagel (but not too well-timed). Sonego? He’s the “I’ll take my chances with the 47th-ranked player” bet that might just haunt you. Pick the former, but root for the latter. Wimbledon thrives on drama, and this match has it in spades.
And remember: The only thing more unpredictable than tennis is why Sonego’s ranked 47th. But hey, at least he’s not Opelka. 🎾
Created: July 4, 2025, 6:09 p.m. GMT