Prediction: Los Angeles Angels VS Atlanta Braves 2025-07-01
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angels: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Very Confused Bookmaker)
July 1, 2025 | Truist Park | 7:15 PM ET
The Setup:
The Atlanta Braves (-164) host the Los Angeles Angels (+269) in a matchup that reads like a math teacher’s nightmare. The Braves, with their 3.77 ERA and 11th-ranked pitching staff, are the obvious chalk. The Angels, meanwhile, are the poster child for "how to be a functional offense but somehow still lose games"—their 4.58 ERA is worse than a broken air conditioner in July.
The Numbers Game:
- Braves’ Implied Probability: At -164, the bookies are saying Atlanta has a 62.1% chance to win.
- Angels’ Implied Probability: At +269, they’re given just 27.1%.
- Underdog Win Rate in MLB: 41%. The Angels’ historical underdog win rate (46.9%) is way higher than the league average, hinting at value.
The Split the Difference Strategy:
The gap between the Angels’ implied probability (27.1%) and their historical underdog win rate (46.9%) is 19.8%. Splitting that difference gives us a "true" win probability of ~37% for the Angels. Plugging that into their +269 odds:
- EV for Angels: (0.37 * 2.69) - (0.63 * 1) ≈ +0.35 (positive EV!).
- EV for Braves: (0.62 * 1.53) - (0.38 * 1) ≈ -0.08 (negative EV!).
Key Players & Injuries:
- Braves: No major injuries reported. Matt Olson and Austin Riley are hitting .280 and .275, respectively, but their offense is MLB-worst at 4.1 RPG.
- Angels: Taylor Ward (.310 BA) and Nolan Schanuel (.295) are the sparks. Their 4.3 RPG is slightly better than Atlanta’s, but their pitching staff is a dumpster fire.
The Verdict:
While the Braves’ 52.3% win rate as favorites is tempting, their implied probability is overinflated. The Angels, despite being underdogs, offer a tantalizing +EV play. The Angels’ 46.9% underdog win rate vs. the 41% MLB average suggests they’re undervalued here.
Best Bet:
Los Angeles Angels (+269)
- Why? Positive EV, historical underdog outperformance, and a Braves offense that’s as reliable as a toaster in a thunderstorm.
Honorable Mention:
Under 9.5 Runs (-110)
- The teams average 8.4 RPG combined. The Under has +EV at these odds.
Final Thought:
The Braves are the safer pick, but the Angels are the smarter one. In sports betting, "safe" and "smart" don’t always share a locker. Tonight, they’re playing for a different kind of legacy: Who’s the real underdog in this underdog story?
Play it like you mean it, but bet it like you’re auditing the books. 🎲⚾
Created: July 1, 2025, 2:48 p.m. GMT