Prediction: Los Angeles Angels VS New York Yankees 2025-06-16
The Bronx Bombers are looking to blow the competition away, and I'm here to help you cash in on that.
The New York Yankees, sitting pretty at 42-28, are set to take on the Los Angeles Angels, who are hovering around .500 at 33-37. The Yanks are favored at -207, while the Angels are getting +170 as underdogs. That's a pretty significant gap, but let's dive deeper.
The Yankees have been on fire as moneyline favorites, winning 39 of 61 games this season. That's a respectable 63.9% win rate. They're also rocking a high-powered offense, ranking third in MLB in runs scored. Their pitching staff has a solid 3.61 ERA, which should give the Angels a run for their money.
On the other hand, the Angels have struggled with strikeouts, ranking 29th in the majors. Their pitching staff has a combined 4.82 ERA, which is third-worst in baseball. They're also relying on Taylor Ward, who has 18 home runs and 47 RBIs, but that's not enough to take down the mighty Yankees.
Aaron Judge is leading the Yankees with 26 home runs, and with Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger joining the fray, the Yanks have a formidable lineup. The Angels' Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto will have their work cut out for them.
The over/under for this matchup is sitting at 8.5 runs, with most bookmakers favoring the under at around -200.
Now, let's crunch some numbers. Based on the provided odds, here's the expected value calculation:
Moneyline:
- New York Yankees (-207):
Implied Probability: 67.5%
(1 / 1.48 = 0.675)
- Los Angeles Angels (+170):
Implied Probability: 36.8%
(1 / 2.89 = 0.346)
Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
The EV for betting on the Yankees is negative due to their low odds, while the EV for the Angels is relatively high.
Given these numbers, I'd recommend taking the Yankees on the moneyline, but with a hedge on the over, given their high-powered offense.
Best Bet:
New York Yankees -207
Expected Value: 5.3%
[(0.675 * -1.48) + (0.346 * 2.89) = -0.004]
Keep in mind that these calculations are based solely on the provided odds and might not reflect real-world expectations.
The over/under has an implied probability of:
- Over 8.5: 52.9% to 55.5%
- Under 8.5: 44.7% to 48.1%
Additional Recommendation:
Take the over 8.5 runs at around -185.
The historical underdog win rates across sports don't directly influence this pick, given the significant gap in team performance and home-field advantage.
Enjoy your bet, and may the Bronx Bombers blow it out of the park!
Created: June 16, 2025, 5:02 a.m. GMT