Prediction: Los Angeles Angels VS Toronto Blue Jays 2025-07-05

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: A Tale of Two Lineups (and a Very Confused Bookmaker)
By Your Friendly Neighborhood Handicapper with a Calculator and a Sense of Humor

The Setup:
The Toronto Blue Jays (-170) host the Los Angeles Angels (+200) in a matchup that’s equal parts “show me the money” and “why is Max Scherzer pitching for Toronto?” The Jays boast a .258 team batting average (2nd in MLB), while the Angels drag their .229 mark (28th) into the fray. Scherzer, the GOAT of pitching, faces Jack Kochanowicz, whose Wikipedia page probably hasn’t been updated since 2023.

The Numbers Game:
- Implied Probabilities (Decimal Odds):
- Blue Jays: 1 / 1.57 ≈ 63.7%
- Angels: 1 / 2.46 ≈ 40.7%
- Total Vig: 4.4% (standard for MLB lines).

Underdog Win Rates:
- Angels’ historical underdog win rate: 47.8% (vs. MLB average of 41%).
- Blue Jays’ favorite win rate: 57.6% (vs. implied 63.7%).

The Split the Difference Strategy:
- Angels’ Edge: Their 47.8% underdog win rate vs. implied 40.7% = +7.1% edge.
- Blue Jays’ Edge: 57.6% favorite win rate vs. implied 63.7% = -6.1% edge.

Key Players to Watch (or Not, If You’re the Angels):
- Vlad Jr. (.274 BA, 12 HRs) and George Springer (.281 BA, 15 HRs) for the Jays—think of them as the MLB version of a “two-man band” that also hits home runs.
- Taylor Ward (20 HRs, 58 RBI) is the Angels’ lone bright spot, but their lineup is basically a spreadsheet error waiting to happen (.229 BA).

The Verdict:
While the Blue Jays’ offense is a well-oiled machine (2nd in BA) and Scherzer’s arm is a legend, the Angels’ 47.8% underdog win rate (vs. MLB’s 41%) gives them a 7.1% edge over the implied 40.7%. Meanwhile, the Jays’ implied 63.7% win rate is 6.1% over their actual 57.6% favorite performance—a red flag for bookmakers.

Best Bet:
Los Angeles Angels (+200)
- Why? The Angels’ underdog win rate (47.8%) > implied probability (40.7%) = +7.1% expected value.
- Sarcasm Alert: If you’re betting on the Angels, you’re basically the guy who buys the “1 in 100” lottery ticket but also wins.

Honorable Mention:
- Under 9.5 Runs (-110): Scherzer and Kochanowicz might not light up the scoreboard, and the Angels’ offense is about as exciting as a tax audit.

Final Thought:
The Blue Jays are the safer pick, but the Angels offer better value. In sports betting, “safe” is for sandwiches. Go with the Angels and enjoy the 7.1% edge—because even underdogs deserve a shot (and a decent ROI).

Note: If you bet the Angels and they lose, at least you’ll have a great story for your next therapy session. 🎲⚾

Created: July 5, 2025, 10:40 a.m. GMT