Prediction: Los Angeles Angels VS Toronto Blue Jays 2025-07-06
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Bat-Breaking Walk-Off)
July 6, 2025 | Rogers Centre | 1:37 PM ET
The Setup:
The Toronto Blue Jays, riding a 7-game winning streak (including two extra-inning thrillers), host the Los Angeles Angels, who are 43-44 and struggling to score runs. Toronto’s offense is firing on all cylinders (1 HR/game, George Springer’s .284/.379/.513 slash line), while the Angels are a .704 OPS team—tied for 17th in MLB. The Angels’ lone bright spot? Jo Adell’s .836 OPS and 19 HRs.
The Pitchers:
- Toronto: Kevin Gausman (assuming he’s not confused with Max Scherzer, who’s had a rough start this season). Gausman’s 2024 stats (3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) suggest he’s a reliable arm, though his 2025 performance remains to be seen.
- LA: Jack Kochanowicz (3-8, 5.44 ERA, 1.56 WHIP). A young righty with a resume that screams “don’t bet on this guy.”
Key Numbers:
- Blue Jays: 50-38 overall, 20-14 when favored, 10th in MLB in team OPS (.732).
- Angels: 43-44, 128 HRs (5th in MLB), but a .704 team OPS (17th).
- Odds: Toronto (-150) vs. LA (+250).
The Implied Probabilities:
- Blue Jays: 1 / 1.54 ≈ 64.9% (decimal odds).
- Angels: 1 / 2.54 ≈ 39.37%.
The Underdog Win Rate:
MLB underdogs win 41% of the time. The Angels’ implied probability (39.37%) is 1.63% below this benchmark—value territory.
The EV Calculation:
- Angels’ Expected Value (EV):
- Adjusted probability = (39.37% + 41%) / 2 = 40.185%.
- EV = (40.185% * (2.54 - 1)) - (59.815% * 1) ≈ +2.0%.
- Blue Jays’ EV:
- Implied probability (64.9%) vs. expected favorite win rate (59%).
- EV = (59% * (1.54 - 1)) - (41% * 1) ≈ -9.1%.
The Verdict:
While the Blue Jays are the more likely winner (7-game streak, dominant offense), the Angels offer positive EV on the moneyline. Kochanowicz’s 5.44 ERA and Toronto’s 1 HR/game average suggest the Angels could capitalize on a shaky starter. Springer’s hot streak is impressive, but the Jays’ recent extra-inning heroics might be a mirage.
Best Bet:
**
Created: July 6, 2025, 8:39 a.m. GMT