Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-07-07
The Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Showdown: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Dash of Drama
Ah, baseball’s greatest rivalry? No, wait—that’s the Yankees and Red Sox. But this Brewers-Dodgers matchup? It’s like a Netflix drama where the plot twists are just okay. Let’s break it down with the precision of a stathead and the humor of a guy who’s seen too many innings.
The Setup
Teams: Milwaukee Brewers (underdogs) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (favorites)
Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff (Brewers) vs. Edward Cabrera (Dodgers)
Odds:
- Moneyline: Dodgers -525 (implied 83.3% win probability), Brewers +375 (implied 72.5% win probability)
- Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (-110), Brewers +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 8 runs (Over -105, Under -115)
The Numbers Game
1. Pitcher Matchup:
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): A 3.80 ERA this season, but coming off a long injury layoff. His return is a feel-good story, but his command might be rusty.
- Edward Cabrera (Dodgers): A 4.50 ERA and a 5.12 FIP. He’s the kind of pitcher who makes you wonder why the Dodgers don’t just trade him to the Mets for a bag of peanuts.
- Team Trends:
- The Brewers have a 47% win rate against the Dodgers this season, which is about as shocking as finding out the sun rises in the east.
- The Dodgers’ offense is elite (4.8 runs/game), but their pitching staff? A dumpster fire.
- Injuries:
- No major injuries listed, but Woodruff’s return is a wildcard. If he’s not 100%, the Brewers’ rotation is… well, it’s the Brewers.
The Underdog Win Rate Angle
MLB underdogs win 41% of the time. The Brewers’ implied probability via the moneyline is 72.5%, which is 31.5% higher than the average underdog win rate. That’s a positive Expected Value (EV) of +31.5% for the Brewers. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ implied probability is 83.3%, which is 22.3% higher than their expected 62% (100% - 41%). So, the Brewers are the better bet here.
The EV Calculation
- Brewers Moneyline:
- Implied probability: 72.5%
- Underdog win rate: 41%
- EV: 72.5% - 41% = +31.5%
- Dodgers Moneyline:
- Implied probability: 83.3%
- Expected win rate: 62% (100% - 41%)
- EV: 83.3% - 62% = +21.3%
- Spread (Brewers +1.5):
- Implied probability: 52.3% (based on -110 odds)
- Historical cover rate for Brewers: ~48% (based on their 47% win rate vs. Dodgers + 1.5-run cushion).
- EV: 52.3% - 48% = +4.3%
- Over 8 Runs:
- Implied probability: 51.3% (based on -105 odds)
- Combined average: 8.2 runs/game (Brewers: 4.3, Dodgers: 4.9).
- EV: 51.3% - 50% = +1.3%
The Verdict
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+375)
Why? The Brewers’ implied probability (72.5%) is 31.5% higher than their expected win rate as underdogs. Even if Woodruff is shaky, the Dodgers’ pitching staff is so bad that the Brewers’ offense (4.3 runs/game) should capitalize.
Honorable Mention: Over 8 Runs
The Brewers-Dodgers matchup has averaged 8.2 runs/game this season. With Cabrera’s 4.50 ERA and Woodruff’s potential rust, this game could blow the roof off the dome.
Final Thoughts
The Dodgers are the favorites, but favorites are like a bad Tinder date—they’re only as good as their last game. The Brewers, with their underdog charm and a pitcher returning from injury, are the smarter play here. Plus, who doesn’t love seeing a team with a 47% win rate against a powerhouse? It’s the sports version of a David vs. Goliath story, but with more strikeouts and fewer slingshots.
Go Brewers. Or at least bet on them. 🍻⚾
Created: July 7, 2025, 2:22 a.m. GMT