Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-07-08

The Great Dodger Dilemma: Can the Boys in Blue Break Their Skid, or Will the Brewers Steal the Show?

The Setup:
The Los Angeles Dodgers (56-35) enter this matchup on a three-game losing streak, their first such slide since April. The Milwaukee Brewers (50-40) arrive with a 45.5% underdog win rate (20-44), slightly above MLB’s 41% average. The Dodgers, however, are a beast as favorites, winning 64.1% (50-78) of their games in that role. Clayton Kershaw (12-6, 2.85 ERA) faces Jacob Misiorowski (8-7, 4.12 ERA), with the Brewers’ 3.77 ERA ranking 10th in MLB.

Key Numbers & Context:
- Dodgers’ Offense: 500 runs (5.5 RPG), 141 HRs (1st MLB). Freddie Freeman (1.0 projected hits) and Shohei Ohtani (2.1 HRs in July) are lethal.
- Brewers’ Defense: 3.77 ERA, but Misiorowski’s 4.12 ERA vs. LHP (Dodgers’ 2nd in MLB against LHP) is a red flag.
- Kershaw’s Edge: Despite age, Kershaw’s 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP vs. NL teams are elite. The Brewers’ .235 AVG against RHPs? Not ideal.

Odds Breakdown (Moneyline):
- Dodgers (-150): Implied probability = 60% (100/(150+100)).
- Brewers (+130): Implied probability = 43.5% (100/(130+100)).

Underdog Win Rate vs. Implied Probability:
- Brewers’ 45.5% underdog win rate vs. 43.5% implied probability = +2% edge.
- Dodgers’ 64.1% favorite win rate vs. 60% implied probability = +4% edge.

Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- Dodgers: (64.1% win rate * $0.67 profit) - (35.9% loss rate * $1 risk) = +16% EV.
- Brewers: (45.5% win rate * $2.10 profit) - (54.5% loss rate * $1 risk) = -3.5% EV.

The Verdict:
The Dodgers’ +4% edge as favorites and the Brewers’ modest +2% edge as underdogs make this a close call. But the Dodgers’ 16% positive EV on the moneyline is too compelling to ignore. Kershaw’s dominance, the Brewers’ soft spot against RHPs, and the Dodgers’ 64.1% favorite win rate (vs. MLB’s 55% average) tilt the scales.

Best Bet:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-150) Moneyline
Why? The math checks out. The Dodgers’ offense (5.5 RPG) vs. a Brewers’ staff (3.77 ERA) is a mismatch. Kershaw’s 2.85 ERA vs. NL teams? A killer combo. The Brewers’ +130 line is a trap for those clinging to their 45.5% underdog rate—this is a 60% implied, 64% actual scenario. Take the chalk.

Spread & Totals:
- Dodgers -1.5 (-240): Overpriced. Their 64.1% favorite win rate doesn’t account for the spread.
- Under 8.5 (-110): Tempting. Kershaw’s 1.08 WHIP and the Brewers’ 3.77 ERA suggest a low-scoring game.

Final Thought:
The Brewers are a solid underdog, but the Dodgers are a terrifying favorite. This isn’t a “streak” game—it’s a “math” game. Lay the -150 and let the numbers do the talking.

“The only thing better than a 64% favorite is a 64% favorite coming off a three-game skid. The only thing better than that is a 64% favorite coming off a three-game skid with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.” — Bruce Marshall, The SportsLine Oracle

Created: July 8, 2025, 5 a.m. GMT

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