Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-07-09
Dodgers vs. Brewers: A Tale of Two Powerhouses (With a Side of Drama)
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-159) and Milwaukee Brewers (+134) collide in a battle of MLB’s elite, but let’s cut through the hype. The Dodgers are a 61.3% favorite per the moneyline, while the Brewers’ 43.1% implied probability feels like a very generous offer for a team that just handed the Dodgers a 9-1 beatdown. But let’s not let numbers fool us—this is a game where stats and sarcasm must dance in unison.
Key Stats & Context
- Dodgers Offense: 5.4 runs/game, 141 HRs (MLB’s most explosive lineup). Shohei Ohtani (30 HRs, 99 RBIs) is the nuclear option, while Mookie Betts and Will Smith add elite pop.
- Brewers Offense: 4.29 runs/game (8th in MLB), led by Christian Yelich (18 HRs, 63 RBIs) and Jackson Chourio. They’re not slouches, but they’ll need a perfect storm to match LAD’s firepower.
- Starting Pitchers:
- Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers): 3.20 ERA, 1.23 WHIP. Aces don’t come cheap, but Glasnow’s 2025 season has been a masterclass in dominance.
- Jose Quintana (Brewers): 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. A “journeyman” in a league of giants, Quintana’s 2025 campaign has been… well, quintessentially Quintana.
Injuries & Wild Cards
- Dodgers: No major injuries. Shohei Ohtani is literally the MVP, and Mookie Betts is still Mookie Betts.
- Brewers: Sal Frelick (hamstring) is questionable, which weakens their middle-of-the-order pop. Christian Yelich is healthy, but let’s not forget he’s a .250 hitter with a .310 OBP.
Odds Breakdown & Expected Value
- Dodgers Implied Probability: 61.3% (from -159).
- Brewers Implied Probability: 43.1% (from +134).
- MLB Underdog Win Rate: 41%.
Adjusted EV Analysis:
- Brewers: Split the difference between 43.1% (implied) and 41% (historical underdog rate) = 42.05% adjusted probability.
- EV = (42.05% * 1.34) - (57.95% * 1) = -1.6% (not great).
- Dodgers: Split the difference between 61% (implied) and 59% (historical favorite rate) = 60% adjusted probability.
- EV = (60% * 0.64) - (40% * 1) = -1.6% (also not great).
Verdict: Both teams have negative EV on the moneyline. But let’s not forget the spread (Dodgers -1.5, -200) has a 49% implied win rate vs. a 59% historical favorite rate. That’s a +10% edge for the Dodgers on the spread. Take the points, bet the favorite, and sleep easy.
The Verdict: Split the Difference, But Bet the Spread
While the moneyline is a statistical no-man’s-land, the Dodgers -1.5 on the spread is a data-driven play. Glasnow’s ERA (3.20) vs. Quintana’s (4.50) gives LAD a clear edge, and their 5.4 R/G offense should cover the 1.5-run line.
Final Prediction:
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-200)
Why? Because even if the Brewers steal a win (41% chance), the Dodgers’ offense and Glasnow’s arm make them a safer, more profitable bet on the spread. And really, who wouldn’t want to back a team with 141 HRs?
Underdog Caveat: If you must chase the Brewers, do so only if Yelich and Chourio go nuclear. But given Quintana’s 4.50 ERA and Frelick’s injury, it’s a long shot.
Play smart, bet smarter, and never trust a pitcher named Jose. 🎲⚾
Created: July 9, 2025, 7:35 a.m. GMT