Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers VS New Orleans Pelicans 2025-07-12
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans: NBA Summer League Showdown
July 13, 2025 | Thomas & Mack Center | 12:30 AM ET
Key Statistics & Context
- Lakers:
- Won two games in the California Classic by >5 points but lost their first Summer League game, exposing defensive vulnerabilities (paint/transition struggles).
- Relies heavily on Cole Swider for scoring; DJ Steward and Darius Bazley need to step up.
- High-scoring Summer League trend: 170–190 PPG in recent matchups.
- Pelicans:
- Strong first-quarter starts (led by Hunter Dickinson) but lack depth.
- Young, unproven roster (Jeremiah Fears, Micah Peavy) with high upside but no experience in Vegas.
- Also coming off a loss, but motivated to prove themselves.
- Head-to-Head: Neutral-site clash with no clear historical edge.
Injuries & Updates
- Lakers: No major injuries reported, but defensive rotations remain inconsistent.
- Pelicans: No injury concerns, but bench players (Derik Queen) are untested in high-pressure games.
Odds Breakdown
Bookmakers:
- FanDuel: Lakers (-1.0) at 1.95 (51.28% implied), Pelicans (+1.0) at 1.87 (53.48% implied).
- DraftKings: Lakers at 1.93 (51.81%), Pelicans at 1.89 (52.91%).
- Fanatics: Even money (1.91 for both).
Implied Probabilities:
- Lakers: 51.28%–51.81% (favorites in some books, underdogs in others).
- Pelicans: 52.91%–53.48% (slight favorites across the board).
EV Calculations & Betting Strategy
NBA Underdog Win Rate: 32% (Favorite Win Rate = 68%).
- Pelicans (Favorites):
- Implied probability: ~53.48% (avg of bookmakers).
- Adjusted probability: (53.48% + 68% favorite win rate) / 2 = 60.74%.
- EV: 60.74% > 53.48% → Positive EV.
- Lakers (Underdogs):
- Implied probability: ~51.28%.
- Adjusted probability: (51.28% + 32% underdog win rate) / 2 = 41.64%.
- EV: 41.64% < 51.28% → Negative EV.
Verdict: Pelicans at -1.0 Spread
While the Lakers’ recent California Classic dominance is enticing, their defensive woes and reliance on a single scorer (Swider) make them overvalued. The Pelicans, despite being slight favorites, are undervalued by the market. Their strong first-quarter play and the Lakers’ transition struggles suggest the Pelicans can cover the -1.0 spread.
Total (O/U 179.5): Over is a strong play. The Lakers-Pelicans Summer League games have averaged 180 PPG, and the fast-paced Vegas style favors high-volume scoring.
Final Recommendation:
- Bet the Pelicans -1.0 (Positive EV, 60.74% adjusted probability).
- Alternate: Over 179.5 (High-scoring trend, 1.89–1.91 odds).
“The Pelicans are the ‘favorite’ flavor of the week, but don’t let that fool you—they’re the cream of this underdog crop.” 🏀🔥
Created: July 12, 2025, 7:47 a.m. GMT