Prediction: LSU Tigers VS Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 2025-06-22

Witty & Sarcastic Analysis: LSU Tigers vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (NCAA CWS Final, Game 2)
“Baseball is 90% mental, 10% physical. The rest is just Coastal Carolina trying to figure out how to hit a baseball.”

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### The Setup
The LSU Tigers, fresh off Kade Anderson’s 10-strikeout, shutout masterpiece in Game 1, are now -210 favorites to defend their 1-0 lead in the College World Series finals. Coastal Carolina, the underdog Goliaths of 2016, are +190 to defy history again. Their offense? A paltry 3 hits in 27 innings this series. Their HR count? Zero. Meanwhile, LSU’s Jake Brown and Jared Jones have combined for 2 HRs, 6 RBIs, and a .500 average in the CWS.

Coaches are trading barbs like a baseball version of The Office’s “Dundies.” Coastal’s Kevin Schnall praises his “elite coaching staff,” while LSU’s Jay Johnson smirks, “Yeah, but we’ve got titles.”

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### The Numbers Game
Moneyline Odds (Avg):
- LSU Tigers: -210 (Implied 68% win chance)
- Coastal Carolina: +190 (Implied 35% win chance)

Spread (Avg):
- LSU -1.5 (-210) / Coastal +1.5 (+210)

Total Runs (Avg):
- Over/Under: 7.5 runs

Underdog Win Rate (NCAA BB): 26%

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### EV Calculations & Split-the-Difference Logic
Let’s play bookie accountant.

1. Coastal Carolina’s Implied Win Chance: 35% (from +190).
- Split with NCAA underdog rate (26%): (35% + 26%) / 2 = 30.5%
- EV for Coastal: (30.5% * $190 profit) - (69.5% * $100 loss) = -$12.85.

2. LSU’s Implied Win Chance: 68% (from -210).
- No underdog rate adjustment needed (they’re the favorite).
- EV for LSU: (68% * $100 profit) - (32% * $210 loss) = -$5.70.

Verdict: LSU’s EV is less negative. Coastal’s EV is a dumpster fire.

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### Key X-Factors
- LSU’s Pitching: Anderson is available again, but the Tigers might rest him. Cameron Flukey (Coastal’s starter) has a 2.75 ERA but faces a lineup that’s hit 0 HRs in 3 CWS games.
- Coastal’s Offense: They’ve managed 3 hits total in this series. Their batters are so quiet, you could hear a pin drop… or a HR.
- Context: Coastal’s AD promised “full scholarships and rev-share payments” to keep competing. LSU’s AD? Probably sipping sweet tea, smug as hell.

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### The Pick
Best Bet: LSU Tigers Moneyline (-210)
- Why? The EV math says LSU is a safer bet than Coastal’s “elite coaching staff.” Plus, LSU’s hitters are red-hot, and Coastal’s pitchers are walking 4 total BBs in 25 innings. If you want drama, bet on Coastal. If you want to not lose money, bet on LSU.

Alternate Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (+100)
- Sarcasm Alert: “Let’s see Coastal Carolina finally hit a HR… in the finals… against a team that’s held them to 3 hits. Yeah, that’ll happen.” Still, the Tigers’ offense is clicking, and Coastal’s starters are gassed.

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Final Thought:
“Baseball is a game of inches. Coastal’s just digging a hole.” Go LSU, or go home.

Created: June 22, 2025, 5:32 p.m. GMT