Prediction: Maccabi Tel Aviv VS Pafos FC 2025-07-22
UEFA Champions League Qualification: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Pafos FC
Date: July 22, 2025 | Time: 1 PM ET
The Setup:
Maccabi Tel Aviv, Israel’s answer to a team that maybe remembers how to win in Europe, faces Pafos FC, a Cypriot side that’s basically the soccer equivalent of a “meh” emoji. The odds? Maccabi Tel Aviv at +3.1 (32.3% implied), Pafos FC at +2.25 (44.4% implied), and a draw at +3.25 (30.8% implied). Let’s break this down with the precision of a man who’s seen too many 3-2-1 finishes in his life.
The Math: Expected Value Calculations
Underdog Win Rate (Soccer): 41%
Favorite Win Rate: 59%
Pafos FC (Underdog):
- Implied Probability: 44.4%
- Adjusted EV: (44.4% + 41%) / 2 = 42.7%
- Verdict: Not a great underdog bet. Pafos’ implied odds are higher than the average underdog win rate. They’re the “I’ll take my chances” pick for gamblers who like to lose slowly.
Maccabi Tel Aviv (Favorite):
- Implied Probability: 32.3%
- Adjusted EV: (32.3% + 59%) / 2 = 45.6%
- Verdict: A solid favorite bet. The bookmakers are undervaluing Maccabi’s chances (32.3% vs. 59% expected). This is the “play it safe” option for those who hate surprises.
Draw:
- Implied Probability: 30.8%
- Verdict: Draws in European qualifiers are as common as a decent Wi-Fi signal in a remote village. Stick to the favorites.
The Verdict: Best Bet
Maccabi Tel Aviv (-125) to Win
- Why? The math checks out. Maccabi’s implied probability (32.3%) is way below the expected 59% win rate for favorites. Even if they’re not the most exciting team, they’re the safer pick.
- EV Edge: 45.6% adjusted win rate vs. 32.3% implied odds = +13.3% expected value.
UEFA Europa League Qualification: Levski Sofia vs. Hapoel Be’er Sheva
The Context:
Levski Sofia, fresh off a 4-0-0 pre-season and an 11-game unbeaten streak, are the home favorites. Hapoel Be’er Sheva, winners of the Israeli State Cup, are unbeaten in seven but lost to Maccabi Netanya in April. Sportskeeda’s take? “Levski will dominate.”
The Witty Take:
Levski is like the Bulgarian version of a well-oiled machine—except the machine is a 1998 Toyota Corolla with 200,000 miles. Hapoel? They’re the “we won a cup last year” team that forgot how to win after April.
Key Numbers:
- Levski: 11-game unbeaten streak (including 4-0-0 pre-season).
- Hapoel: 7-game unbeaten streak, but a loss to Netanya in April suggests they’re not invincible.
Injuries/Updates:
No major injury reports provided. If Levski’s starting XI is healthy, they’re the safer bet.
Best Bet:
Levski Sofia (-150) to Win
- Why? The underdog win rate in soccer is 41%. Levski’s implied odds (if we assume -150 ≈ 60% implied) are higher than the expected 59% favorite win rate. But their form (11-game unbeaten) and home advantage tilt the EV in their favor.
- EV Edge: 60% implied vs. 59% expected = +1% edge.
Final Call
- Champions League Qualifier: Bet Maccabi Tel Aviv for +13.3% EV.
- Europa League Qualifier: Bet Levski Sofia for +1% EV.
Tongue-in-Check Summary:
If you’re betting on Maccabi Tel Aviv, you’re playing it safe like a 70-year-old in a speedboat. Levski Sofia? They’re the “I’ll take my chances with the home team” pick. Both are solid, but Maccabi’s EV edge is the real MVP.
Note: All odds and probabilities as of July 9, 2025. Adjustments may occur closer to kickoff.
Created: July 9, 2025, 9:09 p.m. GMT