Prediction: Marc Lewis VS Farman Hasanov 2025-06-20
Witty & Tongue-in-Cheek Analysis: Marc Lewis vs. Farman Hasanov (June 20, 2025)
Venue: Somewhere in the UFC’s “Let’s Make a Deal” universe.
The Setup:
Marc Lewis (6.75) vs. Farman Hasanov (1.12). Let’s start by acknowledging that Hasanov’s odds are so lopsided, they might as well be betting on the sun rising tomorrow. Lewis, meanwhile, is priced like a longshot who’s been told he’s “not the main event.” But hey, MMA’s a blood sport where underdogs occasionally defy logic and win… or get knocked out. Your call.
Key Stats & Context:
- Farman Hasanov: The favorite has a 1.12 implied probability (89.29% chance to win per the bookies). That’s the statistical equivalent of betting on the moon not being there tonight.
- Marc Lewis: The underdog’s 6.75 odds translate to a 14.81% implied chance. For context, that’s roughly the probability of Dana White announcing a boxing match next.
- MMA Underdog Win Rate: 35%. So, even if Hasanov is a “sure thing,” history says Lewis has a fighting chance.
Injuries/Updates:
None provided. Both fighters are presumably healthy, but let’s assume Hasanov’s training camp involved eating a lot of tacos and watching The Matrix. Lewis, meanwhile, might’ve trained by arguing with a wall.
Odds Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
1. Implied Probabilities:
- Hasanov: 1 / 1.12 ≈ 89.29%
- Lewis: 1 / 6.75 ≈ 14.81%
- Total: 104.1% (Vig: 4.1%)
- Adjust for Underdog Win Rate:
- Lewis’ adjusted win chance: Split the difference between his implied (14.81%) and MMA’s 35% underdog rate.
- Difference: 35% - 14.81% = 20.19%
- Split the difference: 14.81% + (20.19% / 2) ≈ 24.9%
- EV for Lewis:
- EV = (24.9% * 5.75) - (75.1% * 1) ≈ 1.43 - 0.75 = +0.68 (per $1 bet).
- Hasanov’s EV is negative by default (89.29% implied vs. likely lower actual chance).
Best Bet:
Marc Lewis (+6.75). Why? Because:
- The EV is +68% for Lewis, making it the most statistically favorable play.
- Hasanov’s odds are so absurdly short, even a 25% chance for Lewis (adjusted for underdog trends) makes this a no-brainer.
- MMA history shows underdogs win 35% of the time. If you’re gonna bet on a 14.8% shot, might as well go for the 25% adjusted one.
Final Verdict:
This fight is like betting on a turtle to beat Usain Bolt in a sprint—unless the turtle has a jetpack. Lewis isn’t the turtle; he’s the jetpack. Take the points, ride the underdog, and hope Dana White’s commentary doesn’t accidentally knock Hasanov out mid-fight.
Prediction: Lewis wins via TKO in Round 1. (Just kidding. Hasanov wins via TKO in Round 1. Now that’s a real prediction.)
Created: June 20, 2025, 6:57 p.m. GMT