Prediction: Marin Cilic VS Raphael Collignon 2025-07-01

Wimbledon Day 2 Prediction: Marin Cilic vs. Raphael Collignon
Date/Time: July 1, 2025, 2 PM BST

The Matchup: A Tale of Two Titans (One of Them Is Just a Wall)
Marin Cilic, the 2014 Wimbledon champion and a grass-court legend, faces Raphael Collignon, a journeyman with a 12-17 career ATP record and a recent injury that has kept him sidelined since the 2025 Italian Open. This is not a clash of titans—it’s a mismatch disguised as a tennis match.

Cilic’s Case for Victory:
- Grass-Court Wizardry: Cilic has a 48-22 career record on grass, including a 7-2 Wimbledon mark. His two-handed backhand and serve are tailor-made for the slippery surface.
- Recent Form: Cilic has won 6 of his last 8 matches in 2025, including a 6-2, 6-1 dismantling of a top-50 opponent on grass.
- Mental Edge: Cilic has 10 ATP titles, including a US Open and a French Open. Collignon? Zero.

Collignon’s Case for a Fluke Win:
- Underdog Magic: The 30% underdog win rate in tennis suggests Collignon has a 30% chance to pull off the upset. That’s higher than his ATP win rate (12.7% implied by the odds).
- High-Stakes Odds: At +700 (7.0), a $100 bet on Collignon nets $700 if he wins. That’s the kind of payout that makes even the most rational bettor whisper, “What the hell, I’ll take it.”

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Do Suggest Cilic)
- Implied Probabilities:
- Cilic: ~91.7% (from 1.09 odds).
- Collignon: ~13.3% (from 7.5 odds).
- Adjusted for Underdog Rate:
- Collignon’s adjusted win probability: (13.3% + 30%) / 2 = 21.7%.
- Expected Value (EV) for Collignon: (21.7% * 6.5) - (78.3% * 1) = +0.60.
- EV for Cilic: (91.7% * 0.09) - (8.3% * 1) = -0.01.

Verdict: Collignon has positive EV, but Cilic’s actual win probability is likely closer to 90% (not 87.3%) due to Collignon’s injury.

Key Factors to Watch
1. Collignon’s Injury: He hasn’t played since March 2025. If his movement is rusty, Cilic’s serve-and-volley game will exploit it.
2. Cilic’s Grass-Court Chops: Cilic’s 63% first-serve win rate on grass is elite. Collignon’s 58% return percentage? Not so much.
3. Weather: Wimbledon’s infamous rain could slow the court, favoring Cilic’s power game.

Best Bet: Marin Cilic (-6.5) at 1.8
Why?
- Data-Driven: Cilic’s adjusted win probability is ~88% (91.7% implied minus 3.7% for Collignon’s injury risk).
- Spread Value: Cilic is -6.5, but he’s expected to win 6-3, 6-2, or 7-5. The spread is tight, but the price (1.8) reflects confidence.
- Risk Mitigation: While Collignon’s +700 odds are tempting, his injury makes him a 10% shot, not 21.7%.

Final Prediction: Cilic in 3 sets. Collignon’s best hope is a 5-set thriller, but his body isn’t built for that.

Bonus Pick: Over 34.5 games at 1.85. Cilic’s big serve and Collignon’s shaky returns should keep the match competitive enough to push the total.

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TL;DR: Bet Cilic to cover the spread. Unless Collignon pulls off a miracle (and he’s not even healthy enough for that), this is a coroner’s report waiting to happen.

Created: June 30, 2025, 9:21 p.m. GMT

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