Prediction: Memphis Tigers VS NC State Wolfpack 2025-12-19
Memphis Tigers vs. NC State Wolfpack: A Gasparilla Bowl Showdown of Hope and⊠Well, Less Hope
Ladies and gentlemen, gather âround for the first-ever meeting between the Memphis Tigers and NC State Wolfpack in the Gasparilla Bowl! This is the kind of matchup that makes you wonder if these teams practiced on separate continents. But here we are: Memphis (8-4) vs. NC State (7-5), with the fate of Tampaâs humidity hanging in the balance. Letâs break it down with the precision of a QB who doesnât fumble and the humor of a kicker who finally makes a 50-yarder.
Parsing the Odds: Numbers That Make You Go âHmmâ
- NC State is a -175 favorite, implying a 60% implied probability to win. Memphis at +145 (41.67% implied) is the underdog, which feels about right given their three-game losing streak and interim coach Reggie Howardâs rĂ©sumĂ© (âExperienced in chaos, specializing in last-minute substitutionsâ).
- The spread is NC State -3.5, meaning they need to win by 4+ points. The Over/Under is 56.5, a number so high it makes you think both offenses will play keep-away with the defenseâs sanity.
- Memphisâs offense is a well-oiled machine: QB Brendon Lewis (69.7% completion, 15 TDs) and three running backs with 7 TDs each. But their defense? A sieve. Opposing QBs have thrown for 300+ yards twice in their last three games.
- NC Stateâs CJ Bailey is a magician with a football (23 TDs, 69.6% completion), but they lost their leading rusher, Hollywood Smothers, to the transfer portal. Tight end Justin Joly might opt out mid-game, which is the sports version of leaving a movie halfway through.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Brawls, and a Former Circus Goalie
- Memphis: Interim coach Reggie Howard is trying to hold the team together after Ryan Silverfield bolted to Arkansas. Their defense is so porous, it makes a colander look like a fortress. Kicker Gianni Spetic? A legend. Heâs 4-for-4 on 50+ yarders this season. If he nails one from the 75, heâll probably get a standing ovation and a lifetime supply of Gatorade.
- NC State: Their bowl history is as bleak as a January in Buffalo. Five straight losses, including a brawl in the 2023 Military Bowl. Head coach Dave Doeren claims theyâre âfocused on football,â but weâve seen that movie. The Wolfpackâs defense hasnât stopped anyone since the invention of the forward pass.
The Humorous Spin: Because Sports Needs Laughter
Memphisâs offense is like a buffetâthereâs something for everyone. Three running backs with 7 TDs each? Thatâs not a backfield; itâs a touchdown factory. But their defense? Imagine trying to catch a cold in a hurricane. Opposing QBs are throwing for yards like itâs confetti at a parade.
NC Stateâs CJ Bailey is a wizard with a football, but their running game is about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. And letâs not forget the brawl in the Military Bowlâa reminder that sometimes, the game isnât just about football. Itâs about who can yell the loudest.
As for the Over/Under of 56.5⊠both teams have combined for 56.5 points in a game like this? Sounds about right. Itâs the kind of score youâd get if the defenses took the night off and the offenses played a game of âWho Can Throw the Farthest.â
Prediction: The Wolfpackâs Howl or the Tigersâ Roar?
NC State -3.5 is the play here. Yes, their defense is a sieve, but their offense is a high-powered jet engine. CJ Baileyâs 23 TDs and Memphisâs leaky secondary set up a shootout, and the Over 56.5 is a lock. But NC Stateâs experience in these games (however cursed) gives them the edge. Memphisâs defense canât stop Bailey, and their offense canât stop NC Stateâs defense from⊠well, doing nothing.
Final score? NC State 34, Memphis 27. The Wolfpack cover the spread, the Over cashes in, and we all go home with a story about that time Memphisâs defense let a QB throw for 400 yards and a free T-shirt.
Bet: NC State -3.5 (-110). Because sometimes, you just have to trust the circus acrobat who once caught a falling elephant.
Created: Dec. 19, 2025, 4:30 a.m. GMT