Prediction: Miami Marlins VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-06-11
Folks, we've got a real barnburner of a matchup for you today - the Pittsburgh Pirates (27-40) are riding a four-game win streak and are favored to make it five against the Miami Marlins (24-40). Because, you know, the Pirates are just on a tear... a tear of mediocrity, that is.
The Pirates are looking to keep their streak alive with Bailey Falter on the mound, while Cal Quantrill will try to stifle their offense. Now, let's talk about some key stats: the Pirates have a 40% win rate when favored, which is... well, not great. The Marlins, on the other hand, have a 36.4% win rate as underdogs, which is... slightly better.
The Pirates are the second-lowest scoring team in baseball, averaging a paltry 3.3 runs per game. The Marlins have scored 259 runs this season, which ranks 23rd in MLB. I mean, it's not like either team is lighting up the scoreboard or anything.
As for key players, you've got Oinel Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, and Andrew McCutchen for the Pirates, and Kyle Stowers, Otto Lopez, and Xavier Edwards for the Marlins. Because, you know, these guys are actually good.
Now, let's talk odds. According to the books, the Pirates are favored at around -1.5, with the Marlins sitting at +1.5. The over/under is set at 8.5, with the over around -105 and the under around -115.
So, here's the deal. The Pirates are on a roll, but it's not like they're exactly dominating. The Marlins are, well, not great. But they've got a decent chance of pulling off the upset as underdogs.
My data-driven best bet? Take the Marlins +1.5 at around -105. I mean, it's not like the Pirates are a lock to win, and the Marlins have shown some spark. Plus, with a 36.4% win rate as underdogs, they're not a terrible bet.
As for the over/under, I'd take the under 8.5 at around -115. Both teams are struggling to score, and it's not like PNC Park is exactly a hitter's paradise.
There you have it, folks. The Pirates might be on a roll, but I'm betting on the Marlins to keep it close. And don't even get me started on the over/under - it's gonna be a low-scoring affair, trust me.
Best Bet: Miami Marlins +1.5 (-105)
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-115)
Created: June 11, 2025, 11:18 a.m. GMT