Prediction: Mike Davis VS Mitch Ramirez 2025-07-12
Mike Davis vs. Mitch Ramirez: A Statistical Jab at the Odds
July 12, 2025 — MMA Fight Analysis
Key Statistics & Context
- Mike Davis is the massive favorite across all bookmakers, with decimal odds ranging from 1.08 (92.5% implied probability) to 1.11 (90.9% implied probability).
- Mitch Ramirez is the underdog, priced between 6.75 (14.7% implied probability) and 8.5 (11.8% implied probability).
- The fight is a speculative matchup with no recent head-to-head history or detailed fighter stats provided.
Injury Updates: None reported. Both fighters are listed as active, but with no medical red flags.
Odds Breakdown & Implied Probabilities
| Fighter | Decimal Odds | Implied Probability |
|-------------|--------------|---------------------|
| Mike Davis | 1.08–1.11 | 90.9%–92.5% |
| Mitch Ramirez | 6.75–8.5 | 11.8%–14.7% |
Underdog Win Rate Context: For MMA, underdogs win 35% of the time.
EV Calculations & Adjusted Probabilities
1. Underdog (Mitch Ramirez):
- Implied probability: ~13.3% (average of 11.8%–14.7%).
- Adjusted probability: (13.3% + 35%) / 2 = 24.15%.
- EV: Ramirez’s adjusted probability (24.15%) > Implied probability (13.3%) → +EV underdog bet.
- Favorite (Mike Davis):
- Implied probability: ~91.7% (average of 90.9%–92.5%).
- Favorite win rate: 65% (100% – 35% underdog rate).
- Adjusted probability: (91.7% + 65%) / 2 = 78.35%.
- EV: Davis’s adjusted probability (78.35%) < Implied probability (91.7%) → -EV favorite bet.
Verdict: Bet the Underdog
- Mitch Ramirez is a mathematical anomaly at these odds. His implied probability (13.3%) is 7 percentage points below the MMA underdog win rate (35%).
- Mike Davis is overvalued by bookmakers. Even if he wins, the market is pricing in a near-certain victory, which defies historical trends.
- Total Bets: The “Under 2.5 rounds” line is priced at 1.56–1.61 (64%–62% implied). Given MMA’s chaotic nature, this is a toss-up unless you’re betting on a war.
Final Call
Bet Mitch Ramirez at +500 (6.75 odds).
- Why? The EV is screaming: Ramirez’s adjusted win chance (24.15%) is double his implied probability.
- Caveat: This is a speculative bet based on odds alone. If Ramirez’s recent fights show a pattern of resilience or Davis’s style is vulnerable to upsets, the EV becomes even more compelling.
Injuries? None listed, but MMA is a contact sport. If Davis’s elbow or Ramirez’s knee flares up pre-fight, the EV shifts.
The Verdict in One Line: The odds are a mathematical joke. Bet the underdog before the bookmakers realize they’ve been punk’d.
---
Data as of July 12, 2025. Adjustments may occur closer to fight night.
Created: July 12, 2025, 6:41 a.m. GMT