Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers VS Chicago Cubs 2025-06-17
Witty Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs (2025-06-18)
“Baseball’s greatest tradition: underdogs pretending they’re not, and favorites pretending they’re not tired of it.”
The Setup
The Cubs (1.65-1.69) host the Brewers (2.25-2.31) at Wrigley Field, where the air is thick with nostalgia and the runs are thin. The spread (-1.5 for Chicago) is as tight as a pitcher’s grip on a slider, and the total (9 runs) is a middle finger to the idea of a low-scoring pitchers’ duel.
Key Stats & Trends
- Cubs’ Strength: Their rotation has a 3.85 ERA this season, led by a Cy Young hopeful (let’s call him “Jon Lester 2.0” for dramatic effect).
- Brewers’ Edge: Milwaukee’s offense is a beast, averaging 5.2 runs per game—second in the NL. They’ve hit 12 HRs in their last 5 games, including a suspiciously timed grand slam by a player named “Derek” (no, not Jeter).
- Home Field: Wrigley’s ivy-covered walls suppress offense, but the Brewers have a 6-3 record in road games this year—proof that even in a pitcher’s park, a hungry team can feast.
Injuries & Updates
No major injuries reported. Both teams are healthy, which is either a blessing or a curse depending on how you feel about “clean” games. The Cubs’ closer is 100% healthy, which is terrifying.
Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline: Cubs (-140) vs. Brewers (+160).
- Spread: Cubs -1.5 (-120) / Brewers +1.5 (+105).
- Total: Over 9 (-110) / Under 9 (-110).
Calculating Expected Value (EV)
1. Cubs Moneyline:
- Implied probability: ~60% (1 / 1.65).
- Adjusted for MLB underdog win rate (41%): Split the difference → 55% actual probability.
- EV: (0.55 * 1.65) - (0.45 * 1) = +0.4575.
2. Brewers Moneyline:
- Implied probability: ~43% (1 / 2.28).
- Adjusted for underdog rate (41%): Split the difference → 42% actual probability.
- EV: (0.42 * 2.28) - (0.58 * 1) = +0.3576.
3. Over/Under:
- Cubs’ pitching staff allows 4.1 runs/game; Brewers score 5.2.
- Wrigley’s “ivy effect” usually suppresses offense, but the Brewers’ bats are hot enough to melt it.
- Over 9 (-110) has a slight edge here.
The Verdict
While the Cubs’ EV is technically higher, the Brewers’ +0.3576 EV is still a solid bet for the underdog. But let’s not forget the spread: Chicago is favored by 1.5, and the Brewers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games.
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers (+1.5) at +105
- Why? The spread is tight, and the Brewers’ offense (+5.2 R/G) gives them a fighting chance to stay within 1.5 runs. Plus, the EV is positive, and covering the spread is more forgiving than outright winning.
Sarcastic Final Thought
The Cubs are the favorites, but let’s be real—baseball
Created: June 17, 2025, 1:24 p.m. GMT