Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers VS Miami Marlins 2025-07-05
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: A Tale of Two Tides
July 5, 2025 – LoanDepot Park – 4:10 PM ET
The Setup
The Milwaukee Brewers (48-39) roll into Miami as a -115 favorite, but their 3-4 skid and a leaky bullpen (22nd in HRs) make them look less like a juggernaut and more like a team that’s been propped up by a .650 win rate in favored games. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins (39-46) are a 9-1 SU team in their last 10, led by Sandy Alcantara’s 6.98 ERA (a number that screams “do not trust me”) and a lineup that’s somehow managed to win 34 games as underdogs.
Key Players & Injuries
- Quinn Priester (Brewers): 3.35 ERA, but can he keep the Marlins’ pesky bats in check? His 6-2 record is nice, but the Brewers’ offense isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire (22nd in HRs).
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 4-8 with a 6.98 ERA. He’s the definition of “if you can’t beat ’em, don’t pitch,” but Miami’s recent 9-1 SU run suggests they’ve found a way to win despite him.
- Injuries: Both teams are relatively healthy, but the Brewers’ recent struggles (3-4 in their last 7) hint at deeper issues than just a bad pitcher.
Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline: Brewers -115 (implied probability: 53.3%), Marlins +220 (implied: 31.25%).
- Spread: Brewers -1.5 (-115), Marlins +1.5 (-115).
- Total: 8.5 runs, Over 1.89, Under 1.93 (implied Under probability: ~51.8%).
The Math
- Underdog Win Rate in MLB: 41%. The Marlins’ 31.25% implied probability is way below that, suggesting they’re undervalued.
- Expected Value (EV) for Marlins ML:
- Implied: 31.25% | Historical: 41% | Difference: +9.75%
- EV = (41% * 2.2) - (59% * 1) = +31.2% (Positive EV).
- EV for Under:
- Implied: 51.8% | Historical: ~60% (based on 8-straight Marlins unders, 4.75 ERA vs. 3.80 ERA).
- EV = (60% * 1.93) - (40% * 1) = +15.8% (Also positive).
The Verdict
While the Brewers’ -115 line might tempt you to “just trust the favorite,” history and recent trends scream otherwise. The Marlins’ 9-1 SU run includes a 4.75 ERA and a lineup that’s thrived in low-scoring games (8-straight unders). Priester’s 3.35 ERA is decent, but the Brewers’ offense isn’t explosive enough to cover a 1.5-run spread.
Best Bets
1. Under 8.5 Runs (-115 to -118): The Marlins’ home park and both teams’ ERAs (4.75 vs. 3.80) make this a prime candidate for a low-scoring affair. The 8.5 total feels inflated.
2. Marlins +220 ML: With a +9.75% EV and a 9-1 SU streak, Miami is the better value. Don’t let Alcantara’s ERA fool you—this team knows how to win ugly.
Final Thought
The Brewers are a paper tiger, and the Marlins are the definition of “trust the process.” Take the under and a small play on Miami to exploit the market’s skepticism. After all, if you can’t beat Sandy, maybe you should just bet on the underdog who’s been beating everyone else.
Play: Under 8.5 (-115) and a small key on Marlins +220.
Created: July 5, 2025, 10:52 a.m. GMT