Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers VS New York Mets 2025-07-01
The Mets vs. Brewers Showdown: A Tale of Two (Questionable) Starters
The New York Mets (-132) host the Milwaukee Brewers (+107) in a matchup that’s equal parts intriguing and absurd. Let’s break it down with the precision of a broken calculator and the wit of a disgruntled umpire.
Key Stats & Context
- Mets: 3.47 ERA (4th in MLB), 39-21 as favorites. Juan Soto (20 HRs) and Pete Alonso (65 RBI) lead the charge.
- Brewers: 3.78 ERA (12th), 18-23 as underdogs. Jackson Chourio (.254 BA) and Christian Yelich are the offensive sparks.
- Starting Pitchers: Clay Holmes (Mets closer, not a starter) vs. Freddy Peralta (Brewers’ OF, not a pitcher). Wait… what?
The Absurdity of the Starters
Let’s address the elephant in the ballpark: Clay Holmes is a closer, not a starter. Freddy Peralta is a five-tool outfielder, not a pitcher. If this is real, the Brewers are starting a position player, and the Mets are starting their closer. That’s like a chess match where both players open with their queens. The Mets are the lesser of two evils here—at least Holmes has a 2.85 ERA in relief. Peralta’s ERA? Let’s say… infinite.
Odds & Expected Value
- Mets Implied Probability: -132 → 132/(132+100) = 56.76%
- Brewers Implied Probability: +107 → 100/(107+100) = 48.3%
- MLB Underdog Win Rate: 41% → Brewers’ expected win rate = 41%
EV Calculation:
- Mets: 56.76% implied vs. 59% expected (favorites win ~59% in MLB) → +2.24% edge.
- Brewers: 48.3% implied vs. 41% expected → -7.3% edge.
Why the Mets Win (Even With Holmes)
1. Pitching Absurdity: The Brewers’ “starter” is a non-pitcher. The Mets’ “starter” is a closer, but at least he’s a pitcher.
2. Team Metrics: The Mets’ 3.47 ERA vs. the Brewers’ 3.78 is a significant edge.
3. Historical Performance: Mets are 65% as favorites (39-21), outperforming their implied 56.76%.
The Verdict
Best Bet: New York Mets (-132)
- Why: Despite the laughable starters, the Mets’ superior pitching, historical performance, and the Brewers’ absurd lineup (Peralta on the mound?) give them a clear edge. The EV favors the Mets by +2.24%, and their 59% expected win rate as favorites vs. 56.76% implied makes them a smart play.
Sarcasm Alert: If the Brewers win, send Freddy Peralta to the Hall of Fame. If the Mets win, thank Clay Holmes for not being a full-time closer.
Final Score Prediction: Mets 5, Brewers 2. (But only if Peralta doesn’t no-hitter the game.)
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Note: If the starting pitchers are a typo, adjust accordingly. But as written, this is a comedy of errors—and the Mets are the punchline’s punchline.
Created: July 1, 2025, 3:58 p.m. GMT