Prediction: Minnesota Lynx VS Chicago Sky 2025-07-14
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx: A Tale of Two Teams, One Grueling Schedule
By The Sportswriter Who Still Believes in Underdogs
Contextualizing the Matchup: The Sky Rises, the Lynx Stumble
The Chicago Sky, a team with a 7-13 record that would make a toddler blush at a family reunion, is suddenly the belle of the ball. How? By pulling off a miraculous 87-81 victory over the WNBA’s elite, the 18-4 Minnesota Lynx, just days ago. It’s the sports equivalent of a penguin winning a beach volleyball tournament—surprising, slightly implausible, but glorious.
The Lynx, fresh off a 2024 WNBA finals run and the reigning queens of consistency, are now facing a Sky squad that’s playing with the desperation of a man who just found out his Netflix password has been compromised. But here’s the twist: the Lynx looked like they’d just survived a zombie apocalypse in their last game. Coach Cheryl Reeve admitted her team was “tired and disconnected,” a damning assessment for a team that’s built its dynasty on execution and poise. Meanwhile, the Sky? They’re riding high on the back of Angel Reese, their All-Star anchor, who’s become the league’s answer to a Swiss Army knife—useful, versatile, and suddenly the star of the show.
Key Data Points: Angel, the Beast, and the Bench
Let’s start with Angel Reese, the 22-year-old phenom who’s already racked up 40 double-doubles in her first two seasons. That’s not just impressive; that’s unfair. In the Sky’s recent win, she dropped 19 points and 11 rebounds, but her true magic lies in her ability to dominate the glass. The Sky outrebounded the Lynx 45-28 in that game—imagine a team so dominant on the boards, they’re basically playing a different sport.
Then there’s Kamilla Cardoso, the 6’8” Brazilian center who’s like a human net for dunks. In that same game, she added 17 points and 15 rebounds, forming a post-apocalyptic duo with Reese that left the Lynx’s defense looking like a screen door in a hurricane. The Lynx, for their part, tried to adjust. Napheesa Collier, their MVP-caliber star, dropped 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists in the loss, but even she can’t single-handedly outwork a team that’s outrebounding you like it’s a Netflix binge session.
But here’s where the Lynx’s Achilles’ heel emerges: their bench. In the previous matchup, they mustered a meager 11 points off the bench—a number so low, it’s practically a eulogy for their depth. Meanwhile, the Sky’s bench, led by Ariel Atkins’ 27-point explosion, looked like a group of caffeinated mathematicians who’d just solved the Riemann Hypothesis.
Odds & Strategy: When Numbers Meet Narrative
Let’s talk about the implied probabilities here. The Lynx are priced at -11.0 (American odds), which translates to an implied probability of roughly 91.7% (using the formula |odds| / (|odds| + 100)). Meanwhile, the Sky, at +5.5 (decimal odds), have an implied probability of 15.9% (1 / 5.5). But hold your horses—historically, underdogs in the WNBA win about 35-40% of the time when facing such lopsided odds. That’s a gap so wide, you could fit a limo in it.
Why the disconnect? Let’s break it down:
1. The Lynx’s Schedule: They’ve played three road games in four days and seven games in 12 days. That’s the WNBA equivalent of sprinting a marathon while juggling flaming torches. Fatigue isn’t just a factor—it’s a character in this story.
2. The Sky’s Rebounding Edge: In their last meeting, Chicago outrebounded Minnesota by 17 boards. In the WNBA, teams that outrebound opponents by 10+ win 68% of the time. That’s not luck—it’s leverage.
3. The Spread: Chicago is getting 10.5-11 points, which, in betting terms, is like giving a beginner surfer a bodyboard and saying, “Here, try not to drown.” If the Sky can stay within single digits, they’ve already beaten the bookmakers’ expectations.
EV Calculations: The Art of Betting Like a Cat Who Knows the Sofa is Off-Limits
Expected Value (EV) isn’t just math—it’s the art of balancing risk and reward while pretending you know what you’re doing. Let’s apply it here:
- Implied Probability (Lynx): ~91.7%
- Historical Underdog Win Rate: ~37.5%
- Adjusted Probability (Splitting the Difference): Let’s say 60% Lynx, 40% Sky.
Now, plug in the numbers:
- EV for Sky: (40% win chance × $5.5 profit) – (60% loss chance × $1 stake) = $2.20 – $0.60 = $1.60 EV per $1 bet.
- EV for Lynx: (60% win chance × $1.16 profit) – (40% loss chance × $1 stake) = $0.696 – $0.40 = $0.296 EV per $1 bet.
So, while the Lynx are the favorite, the Sky offer a significantly higher EV. It’s the sports betting version of choosing between a guaranteed $30 or a 40% shot at $55. The math says: go for the gamble.
The Decision Framework: Why the Sky Might Fly Again
While the Lynx are the better team on paper, basketball isn’t chess—overconfidence is a death sentence. The Sky’s recent win wasn’t a fluke; it was a masterclass in exploiting weaknesses. Here’s why they could pull off the upset again:
- Angel Reese’s Clutch Gene: She’s a magician with a basketball, and her 19-point, 11-rebound performance was just an appetizer. Expect her to dominate the paint like a toddler with a new toy.
2. Lynx’s Bench Woes: With only 11 bench points in the last game, the Lynx have the depth of a puddle after a drought. If Chicago’s starters can stay hot, Minnesota’s reserves won’t be able to breathe.
3. Fatigue Factor: The Lynx are playing like a sleep-deprived barista—functional, but error-prone. The Sky, meanwhile, are fresh off a rare win and playing with the fire of a team that has nothing left to lose.
Final Verdict: Bet the Sky, But Pack an Umbrella
The numbers say pick the Lynx. The narrative says pick the Sky. Where do we land?
Take the Chicago Sky +11. The spread gives them enough breathing room to win or lose by a point and still cash your ticket. It’s the sports betting version of buying insurance for your ex’s new car—risky, but someone’s gotta keep things interesting.
And if the Lynx win? Well, they’ll probably do it by 12 points, and you’ll laugh about it over coffee while the Sky’s fans eat humble pie. But if the Sky pull off the upset? You’ll be the hero of the office pool, sipping victory coffee while the rest of the world wonders, “How’d they do that?”
In the end, this game isn’t just about basketball. It’s about resilience, strategy, and the eternal hope that the underdog will rise. And let’s be honest—we all root for the underdog. Even if they’re the Chicago Sky.
Data Sources: 2025 WNBA Game Logs, Fanatics & DraftKings Odds, Cheryl Reeve’s Postgame Press Conference (where she admitted her team “looked like they’d rather be anywhere else”).
Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice. It is, however, a very persuasive argument for why Angel Reese should be in the MVP conversation.
Created: July 14, 2025, 5:15 a.m. GMT