Prediction: Missouri St Bears VS Xavier Musketeers 2025-12-12
Xavier Musketeers vs. Missouri State Bears: A One-Sided Shootout or a Defensive Masterclass? (Spoiler: It’s the Former)
Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a basketball spectacle where one team plays like a symphony and the other… well, maybe they’re just here for the snacks. Xavier (-18.5) hosts Missouri State in a matchup so lopsided it makes a seesaw look balanced. Let’s break this down with the precision of a point guard reading a zone defense—and maybe a few jokes about Missouri State’s chances of not getting blown out.
Parsing the Odds: Xavier’s Offense vs. Missouri State’s “Defensive Strategy”
Xavier isn’t just scoring points; they’re celebrating points. The Musketeers have averaged 151.6 points per game over their last six contests, hitting the Over in five of them. Their offense is a well-oiled machine, shooting 64.2% on two-pointers (because who needs three-pointers when you can just dunk on life?). Missouri State, meanwhile, is the NBA’s version of a sieve. They’ve allowed 98 and 86 points in their last two games, and their defense ranks 245th nationally. If their rim protection were a person, it would be that friend who accidentally lets the whole party in when they try to lock the door.
The spread here is Xavier -18.5, which is essentially the betting market saying, “Hey, Xavier, take it easy on these guys, you’re already up 20 at halftime.” Missouri State’s only hope? Maybe their 12th-highest free throw attempt rate in the nation? Sure, they’ll foul like it’s their job, but with Xavier’s Tre Carroll (17.3 PPG) and Milicevic (12.5 PPG) hitting from everywhere, even a trip to the free-throw line feels like a detour.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Bench Woes, and a Conference That’s Lost Its Mojo
Missouri State’s woes start with their absent center, Michael Osei-Bonsu, a 6’4”, 280-pound rim-protector who’s as reliable as a free-throw shooter in a hurricane. His replacement, Darrion Sutton, is decent (56/44/63 shooting splits? Nice!), but he’s also a sophomore who’s never faced Xavier’s offensive onslaught. The Bears’ bench? A tragicomedy. They rank 343rd in bench minutes, with four starters averaging over 4 fouls per game. It’s like watching a cooking show where the chef forgets to chop the onions—and then blames the knife.
On the other side, Xavier is riding a 7-3 start and a 6-1 home record that’s as comfortable as a college student in a 2 a.m. pizza booth. Their Big East schedule is about to get tougher, but for now, they’re facing Missouri State—a team that’s 0-2 on the road and hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2008 (yes, before most of their current players were born). Their Conference USA? A league that’s descended into chaos since Liberty won it in 2023. It’s the sports equivalent of a Netflix show that cancels itself after one season.
The Humor: Because Basketball Needs Laughs, Not Mercy Rules
Let’s be real: Missouri State’s defense is so porous, even the air conditioning in Cintas Center could score against them. Their three-point shooting? A toddler’s aim. Their rebounding? A ghost trying to hug a cloud. And their free-throw attempts? A cry for help written in foul calls.
Xavier, meanwhile, is like that friend who always wins trivia night—not because they cheat, but because they’ve memorized the entire Guinness World Records. Tre Carroll’s scoring? A 30-point eruption in their last game. Their assists? 18 in three games from Malik Messina-Moore, who’s as calm as a librarian during a fire drill.
Prediction: Over 151.5 Points, Because Why Not?
This game isn’t just a mismatch—it’s a math problem. Xavier’s offensive firepower (151.6 PPG) vs. Missouri State’s defensive incompetence (245th in efficiency)? The Over 151.5 is a lock. The Musketeers will torch the Bears’ perimeter defense, exploit their size mismatch in the paint, and send them to the free-throw line so often they’ll start charging admission.
As for the spread? Xavier -18.5 isn’t just a line—it’s a gentleman’s bet. The Musketeers will win by 20+ with room to spare, because Missouri State’s only chance of staying relevant is if Xavier’s starters all trip over their own shoelaces… and even then, their bench is too bad to capitalize.
Final Verdict: Bet the Over and laugh all the way to the bank. Missouri State’s defense is a work of art—modern, confusing, and impossible to stop. Xavier’s offense? A masterpiece. The score? Probably Xavier 85, Missouri State 62. Or higher. Bring popcorn.
Created: Dec. 12, 2025, 11:13 p.m. GMT