Prediction: Morgan Charriere VS Nate Landwehr 2025-07-12
MMA Showdown: Morgan Charrière vs. Nate Landwehr
July 12, 2025, UFC Nashville
Key Statistics & Trends
- Morgan Charrière (20-11, 2-2 UFC):
- Strengths: Two KO wins in the UFC; emphasizes mental preparation (meditation, scenario analysis).
- Weaknesses: Inexperience leads to decision losses; struggles with takedowns.
- Quote: "I’m a rancunier, revanchard" (translation: grudge-holding, revenge-seeking warrior).
- Nate Landwehr (37, 5-4 UFC):
- Strengths: Aggressive striker; 37 years old but fighting at home in Nashville (crowd advantage).
- Weaknesses: Vulnerable when guard relaxes; 4 losses in UFC (all via decision or submission).
- Quote: "The Last Pirate" (Charrière’s nickname) will face a motivated home favorite.
- Head-to-Head: No prior meetings. Landwehr’s UFC record (5-4) vs. Charrière’s (2-2).
Injuries/Updates
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- Landwehr’s age (37): A potential liability, but he’s proven durable in the UFC.
- Charrière’s mental edge: Claims setbacks are “tests of resilience”—a poetic way of saying he’s stubborn.
Odds Breakdown
H2H Market (Averages):
- Charrière: Decimal odds ≈ 1.38 → Implied probability = 72.46%.
- Landwehr: Decimal odds ≈ 3.15 → Implied probability = 31.75%.
EV Calculations (MMA Underdog Win Rate = 35%):
1. Landwehr (Underdog):
- Adjusted probability = (31.75% + 35%) / 2 = 33.38%.
- EV: 33.38% > 31.75% → +EV underdog bet.
- Charrière (Favorite):
- Favorite win rate = 100% – 35% = 65%.
- Adjusted probability = (72.46% + 65%) / 2 = 68.73%.
- EV: 68.73% < 72.46% → -EV favorite bet.
Betting Strategy & Verdict
- Landwehr (+215, approx.) is the smart play. The EV math checks out: his 33.38% adjusted win rate > 31.75% implied odds.
- Charrière (-300) is overvalued. His “mental preparation” and KO power are offset by inexperience and Landwehr’s home-court advantage.
Why Landwehr?
- Crowd Fuel: Nashville’s energy could amplify Landwehr’s aggression.
- Charrière’s Pitfalls: His decision losses suggest he’s vulnerable to volume strikers—Landwehr fits that archetype.
- Age vs. Grit: At 37, Landwehr’s durability is unproven, but Charrière’s youth (29) may lead to overconfidence.
Charrière’s “mental game” is poetic, but MMA is a physical art. Landwehr’s aggression and home support make him a sleeper pick.
Final Call:
Take Nate Landwehr (+315 at BetMGM). The math, the crowd, and the cracks in Charrière’s résumé all point to a Landwehr upset. As the Frenchman would say, “La revanche est un plat qui se mange froid.” (Revenge is a dish best served cold… but Nashville’s crowd might be too hot for him.)
EV: +1.63% for Landwehr. Confidence: 67% (adjusted probability vs. 72% implied for Charrière).
Methodology Note: Calculations assume standard MMA underdog win rates (35%) and no new injury updates. Adjustments for in-fight variables (e.g., takedowns, gas tank) are speculative but align with historical trends.
Created: July 12, 2025, 6:50 a.m. GMT