Prediction: Neil Magny VS Gunnar Nelson 2025-07-19
Neil Magny vs. Gunnar Nelson: A Clash of Aging Warriors
UFC Vegas 108, July 20, 2025
Key Statistics & Context
- Neil Magny (29-13, 22-12 UFC):
- 22 wins in 34 UFC fights, including scalps of Robbie Lawler, Carlos Condit, and Johny Hendricks.
- On a 2-fight losing streak (last win: 2023).
- Aged 38 on the day of the fight—will his legs hold up?
- Gunnar Nelson (25-9-1, 16-7 UFC):
- Recent 1-2 UFC stretch (1-2 since 2023), including a TKO loss to Chidi Njokuani and a draw vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov.
- Known for volume striking but vulnerable to counterpunching.
- "The Viking" has faced Magny-style fighters before—will he crack under pressure?
Injuries/Updates
No major injuries reported. Both fighters are fighting on short notice (odds updated July 10, 2025). Magny’s age (38) and Nelson’s recent inconsistency are the only "injuries" to note.
Odds Breakdown
Bookmakers:
- Gunnar Nelson (-400): Implied probability = 80% (American odds: -400 → 400/(400+100)).
- Neil Magny (+300): Implied probability = 25% (American odds: +300 → 100/(300+100)).
MMA Underdog Win Rate: 35% (per your framework).
Expected Value (EV) Calculations
1. Underdog (Magny):
- Adjusted probability = (Implied 25% + Underdog Win Rate 35%) / 2 = 30%.
- EV = 30% (adjusted) > 25% (implied) → +EV underdog bet.
- Favorite (Nelson):
- Favorite win rate = 100% - 35% = 65%.
- Adjusted probability = (Implied 80% + 65%) / 2 = 72.5%.
- EV = 72.5% < 80% (implied) → -EV favorite bet.
Verdict: Bet the Underdog (Neil Magny +300)
- Why? The market overprices Nelson at 80% implied, while historical MMA underdogs win 35% of the time. Magny’s adjusted probability (30%) is 5% higher than implied, giving him value.
- Trend Check: Magny’s resume (beating former champs) suggests he’s a better counterpuncher than Nelson, who relies on volume. If Nelson’s stamina dips (he’s 36), Magny’s experience could exploit it.
- Humor Alert: Nelson is the "aging Viking" with a 1-2 streak; Magny is the "grizzled old dog" trying to prove he’s not a relic. Bet on the dog who’s literally a dog (puns intended).
Final Pick: Neil Magny (+300) – The EV is there, and history loves a comeback. Let’s see if the "Magny Machine" revs up one last time. 🥊🔥
Assumptions: No head-to-head data exists; calculations rely on provided odds and MMA underdog rates. Adjust if new info surfaces.
Created: July 10, 2025, 4:43 p.m. GMT