Prediction: New Orleans Saints VS Miami Dolphins 2025-11-30
Saints vs. Dolphins: A Tale of Two (Un)Fortunes
The New Orleans Saints (2-9) and Miami Dolphins (4-7) collide in a Week 13 clash that’s as lopsided on paper as a toddler’s attempt at origami. The Dolphins are -5.5 favorites, and the Saints, fresh off a 2-9 start that makes a leaky faucet look consistent, are somehow still here. Let’s break this down with the precision of a NFL film analyst and the humor of a stand-up comedian who’s seen way too many Saints losses.
Parsing the Odds: Why the Dolphins Are the Obvious Choice (But Let’s Pretend Otherwise)
The Saints’ offense is a ghost town. With star running back Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) sidelined and wideout Chris Olave (back) questionable, New Orleans ranks last in the NFL in scoring. Their QB situation reads like a game of musical chairs: Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and a backup named “Hope for the Best” all took turns this season. Statistically, the Saints score points about as often as a vegan at a barbecue contest.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have two of the league’s most electrifying playmakers in De’Von Achane (RB) and Jaylen Waddle (WR), who combined for 27 touchdowns this season. Miami’s defense, once a sieve, has tightened up enough to make a sieve feel proud. The Dolphins are also 6-5 against the spread, suggesting they’re better at executing game plans than the Saints’ coaching staff is at reading them.
Implied probabilities from the odds tell a brutal story: The Saints have a 27% chance to win (based on +210 moneyline odds), while Miami’s implied probability is 73%. That’s the statistical equivalent of flipping a coin and then betting on the side with a picture of a dolphin.
Injury Report: Saints Are Playing with House Money (Literally)
New Orleans’ injury report reads like a who’s-who of “absenteeism due to biology.” Kamara’s knee/ankle issues are less a sports injury and more a cry for help from a man trapped in a football body. Olave’s back injury? A poetic metaphor for the Saints’ season—promising, but doomed by timing.
Miami’s injuries are less catastrophic but still concerning: Cornerback Rasul Douglas (foot/ankle) and tight end Darren Waller (pectoral) are questionable, but coach Mike McDaniel’s optimism suggests they’ll play like a man with a cast on one arm and a cast on his expectations.
Historical Context: Dolphins Lead the Series, But This Isn’t 1974
Miami leads the all-time series 7-6, thanks to a 21-point win in 1974 that probably involved a halftime show so good the Saints forgot to score. The lowest-scoring game in the rivalry? A 20-point dud in 2017 that could’ve been a chess match if the players wore rook uniforms.
This year’s Over/Under is 42.5 points, and the model favors the Over (60%+ simulations). Let’s assume the Saints’ offense will score exactly enough to make Dolphins fans check their phones for earthquake alerts.
The Verdict: Dolphins Win, Saints Cover the Spread in a Miracle That Defies Physics
The Dolphins are favored for a reason: They have functional weapons, a competent coaching staff, and a defense that doesn’t nap. The Saints? They’re the NFL’s version of a “Build-a-Bear” workshop—full of potential, but someone accidentally packed a deflated football.
Prediction: Dolphins 23, Saints 17.
But here’s the twist: The Saints could cover the -5.5 spread if their QB throws three pick-sixes and Miami’s defense goes on a 20-year hiatus. Stranger things have happened, like the Saints winning a game this season.
Final Take: Bet the Dolphins, but if you must take the Saints, pray for a rain delay. The 19-21% chance of rain might be the only thing working in New Orleans’ favor.
“The Saints are like a New Orleans jazz band without a trumpet—still loud, but nobody’s sure what key they’re in.”
Created: Nov. 30, 2025, 5:13 a.m. GMT