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Prediction: New York City FC VS Charlotte FC 2025-07-12

Title: "Charlotte FC: The Overrated Favorite? NYC FC’s Time to Shine in the US Open Cup Quarterfinals"

The Setup:
The New York City FC (NYC FC) and Charlotte FC clash in a US Open Cup quarterfinal, with Charlotte (-110) favored over NYC FC (+330) and a draw priced at +360. Let’s cut through the noise and see who’s actually worth your hard-earned cash.

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The Numbers Game
Charlotte FC (1.95 decimal odds):
- Implied Probability: 1 / 1.95 ≈ 51.28%
- Underdog Win Rate (Soccer): 41%
- Difference: 51.28% - 41% = +10.28% (Overvalued by bookmakers).

NYC FC (3.5 decimal odds):
- Implied Probability: 1 / 3.5 ≈ 28.57%
- Underdog Win Rate (Soccer): 41%
- Difference: 41% - 28.57% = +12.43% (Undervalued by bookmakers).

The Math Doesn’t Lie:
Charlotte’s implied probability is 10.28% higher than the historical underdog win rate, making them a poor bet. NYC FC, meanwhile, is 12.43% undervalued—a golden opportunity for contrarians.

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Injury Report & Key Notes
- Charlotte FC: No major injury updates provided. Their recent 2-2 draw with Charlotte FC (wait, that’s the same team? Cue eye-roll) suggests inconsistency.
- NYC FC: Also no injury reports, but their 1-0 loss to Nashville SC and 1-1 draw with San Jose hint at a team clawing for form.

Sarcasm Alert: Charlotte’s “three-point system” for victories might as well be a magic trick—pulling wins out of nowhere? Not so much.

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Why NYC FC is the Smart Play
1. Value in the Underdog: Soccer underdogs win 41% of the time. NYC FC’s 28.57% implied probability is a steep discount.
2. Charlotte’s Overconfidence: At 51.28%, Charlotte is priced like a sure thing—but history says they’re just 41% likely to deliver.
3. The Spread Doesn’t Help: Charlotte is -0.5 in spreads, but NYC FC’s +0.5 line gives them a literal “get out of jail free” card.

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Final Verdict
Best Bet: New York City FC (+330)
- Expected Value (EV): NYC FC’s 41% chance (underdog rate) vs. 28.57% implied = +12.43% edge.
- Why Not Charlotte? Their 51.28% implied is a 10.28% overcharge.

Playbook Pick: Take NYC FC. Let the underdog charm work its magic. After all, soccer is a game of surprises—unless you’re Charlotte FC, in which case, you’re just overpriced.

Bonus Sarcasm: If Charlotte wins, blame the “historical trends.” If NYC FC pulls it off, thank me later.

“It’s been a weird week for me so far,” said Marcus Mitchell, author of this analysis. “At least the soccer hasn’t been weird… yet.” 🏆

Created: July 9, 2025, 2:13 a.m. GMT

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