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Prediction: New York Knicks VS Detroit Pistons 2025-07-11

NBA Summer League 2025: New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
July 11, 2025 | 7:00 PM ET

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Key Statistics & Context
- New York Knicks (Underdog):
- Summer League roster features young prospects (Ryan Nembhard, Miles Kelly, Jamarion Sharp) and veterans (Maxwell Lewis, Jordan Hall).
- The Knicks’ regular-season core (Brunson, Bridges, Towns) is irrelevant here—this is a developmental squad.
- No reported injuries, but Summer League lineups often rotate heavily.

• Detroit Pistons (Favorite):
  - Roster details are sparse, but they’re favored by 1.5–2.5 points across books.
  - Historically, Summer League teams with higher draft picks or veteran leadership (like the Knicks) often underperform due to roster instability.

• Head-to-Head:
  - No prior Summer League meetings. Regular-season Pistons-Knicks matchups are forgettable, but this is a throwaway game for both.

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Injuries & Updates
- No injuries reported for either team.
- Caveat: Summer League games often see players sit or rest due to workload management. The Knicks’ veterans (Lewis, Hall) may see reduced minutes, while the Pistons’ unknowns could be testing their legs.

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Odds Breakdown
Moneyline (FanDuel):
- Detroit Pistons -170 (Implied Probability: 64.7%)
- New York Knicks +216 (Implied Probability: 32.3%)

Spread (DraftKings):
- Detroit -1.5 (-110)
- New York +1.5 (-110)

Total (Fanatics):
- Over/Under 173.5 (-110)

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EV Calculation & Betting Strategy
1. Underdog Win Rate Context:
- NBA underdogs historically win 32% of the time.

1. Moneyline EV for Pistons (Favorite):
   - Implied Probability: 64.7% (from -170 odds).
   - Favorite Win Rate: 100% - 32% = 68%.
   - Adjusted Probability: (64.7% + 68%) / 2 = 66.35%.
   - EV: 66.35% > 64.7% → Positive EV for Pistons.

1. Moneyline EV for Knicks (Underdog):
   - Implied Probability: 32.3% (from +216 odds).
   - Underdog Win Rate: 32%.
   - Adjusted Probability: (32.3% + 32%) / 2 = 32.15%.
   - EV: 32.15% ≈ 32.3% → Neutral EV.

1. Spread EV:
   - Pistons -1.5 is priced at -110 (50% implied).
   - Given the Pistons’ adjusted win probability (66.35%), they’re expected to cover the spread ~66.35% of the time.
   - EV: 66.35% > 50% → Strong value on Pistons -1.5.

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Final Verdict
Bet: Detroit Pistons -1.5 (-110)
Why?
- The Pistons’ adjusted win probability (66.35%) crushes their implied odds (64.7%), giving them a 1.65% edge.
- The spread (-1.5) is even more attractive, as the Knicks’ young roster (Nembhard, Kelly) is unlikely to keep pace with a focused Pistons team.
- Humor Alert: The Knicks’ Summer League squad is like a “developmental all-star team” — great for potential, terrible for consistency.

Avoid: Knicks +1.5 or Over 173.5. The Pistons’ defense (if they have one) and the Knicks’ lack of cohesion make these plays risky.

Ticket Price Joke: With resale prices “sky-high,” this game is less about basketball and more about flexing your credit card. Bet accordingly.

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TL;DR: Pistons are a statistical steal at -1.5. Knicks fans, enjoy your “summer of hope” — it’ll last about 12 minutes.

Created: July 11, 2025, 2:25 p.m. GMT

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