Prediction: New York Liberty VS Atlanta Dream 2025-08-23
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty: A Tale of Two Teams (One with Injuries, the Other with a Fortress)
The Atlanta Dream, fresh off a 75-73 victory over the Lynx, are hosting the New York Liberty in a WNBA clash that’s less “title showdown” and more “please don’t let the Liberty’s injury report break the internet.” Let’s break this down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a sitcom.
Parsing the Odds: Atlanta’s Implied Probability is a Fortress
The Dream are listed at -4.5-point favorites with a 162-point over/under. Converting the moneyline odds (Atlanta at +149, New York at +264) gives Atlanta an implied 66% chance to win and New York a 38.5% shot. That’s not just a gap—it’s a moat with a drawbridge guarded by Allisha Gray, who averages 18.8 points per game and has played every single minute this season. Meanwhile, the Liberty’s ATS record is a league-worst 13-22-1, which is about as reliable as a toaster oven in a hurricane.
Injury Report: New York’s Roster Looks Like a Jenga Tower After a Party
The Liberty are missing Breanna Stewart (knee), Isabelle Harrison (out), and Nyara Sabally (out), while Sabrina Ionescu (19.0 PPG) is questionable. It’s like watching a symphony orchestra perform with only the percussion section—technically a band, but not the masterpiece you paid for. Without Stewart, New York’s offense is a car with a flat tire and a missing spare. Their recent 91-85 loss to Chicago? A reminder that even the Sky can fly when the Liberty are grounded.
Atlanta’s Defense: Slower Than a Snail in a Traffic Jam
The Dream’s recent dominance stems from their defense, which ranks in the top 10 in points per possession over the last month. They’ve won two of three games against the Liberty this season, including a 79-72 shutout. Their slow pace (they rank 7th in the league in pace) means games are like watching paint dry—but in a good way. If you want to see a team that plays like a chess grandmaster, the Dream are your queenside.
The Over/Under: 162 is a Low-Scoring Joke
The over/under is 162 points, but these teams average 169.8 points per game—6.3 over the line. Yet, the Dream give up just 159.1 points per game, 4.4 under the projected total. If you’re betting the under, you’re essentially betting on Atlanta’s defense to hold New York’s broken offense in check. If you’re betting the over, you’re probably just here for the chaos.
The Humor: A Comedy of Errors
The Liberty’s recent struggles are so legendary, even their mascot should consider retirement. They’ve lost five straight since July, including a 91-85 loss to Chicago where they looked like a team playing with one hand tied behind their backs (and the other waving a white flag). Meanwhile, the Dream’s defense is so tight, they’d make a vault blush.
Prediction: Atlanta’s Fortress Holds
Despite New York’s 22-14 record, their injury-riddled roster and ATS futility make them a shaky underdog. Atlanta’s 70% win rate as a favorite and their 8-2 record in their last 10 games paint a clear picture. The Dream’s home-court advantage, combined with their defensive mettle and New York’s offensive disarray, points to a 78-70 Atlanta victory.
Final Verdict: Bet the Dream (-4.5) and the under (162). Unless you enjoy watching the Liberty’s injury report turn into a tragic opera, in which case… good luck.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice. If you bet on the Liberty, may your hope be as fleeting as their bench depth.
Created: Aug. 23, 2025, 12:57 p.m. GMT